tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post1058360907329518844..comments2024-03-02T02:30:55.592-08:00Comments on Bill Maloni's GSE Blog: Allies Can Disagree......Bill Malonihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-13953750521121190152022-06-08T06:02:40.785-07:002022-06-08T06:02:40.785-07:00why not check here check out here index bags rep... why not check here <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/messenger-c-157_168_223/the-highest-quality-fake-gucci-671620-shoulder-bag-with-interlocking-g-p-4648.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>check out here</strong></a> index <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/besace-c-157_315_321/replica-celine-ladies-small-besace-16-bag-in-satinated-pink-p-2855.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>bags replica ysl</strong></a> basics <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/shoulder-c-157_306_307/luxury-replica-ysl-5860057-24-cm-silver-chain-black-bag-p-2695.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>Dolabuy Loewe</strong></a>sleighshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11653227800061773343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-83295951267074662672022-06-01T20:27:52.070-07:002022-06-01T20:27:52.070-07:00Apprenez Plus ici répliques de sacs de créateurs ... Apprenez Plus ici <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/fr/15-m-c-157_190_228_230/top-quality-cc-replica-255cm-classic-flap-medium-black-bag-p-1423.html" rel="nofollow"><strong> répliques de sacs de créateurs en gros </strong></a> son commentaire est ici <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/fr/bumbag-amp-wave-c-157_158_165/louis-vuitton-r%C3%A9pliques-new-wave-chain-multipochette-m56466-p-3143.html" rel="nofollow"><strong> répliques de sacs à main gucci </strong></a> vérifier ces gars-là <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/fr/clochard-c-157_190_365/top-quality-uk-r%C3%A9plique-as2479-sacs-%C3%A0-main-en-gros-p-3617.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>Dolabuy Fendi</strong></a>mcsheseahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04372270136501857774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-87921315601561461602020-08-23T05:48:53.591-07:002020-08-23T05:48:53.591-07:00yeezy
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Instead, starting with Paulson, the government engaged in a several lies, got caught when F&F revived, and then followed up with the "sweep," which put Uncle in court against a lot of unhappy investors.<br /><br />And, you are right about the instability, which is why the simplest thing is to keep F&F, make some minor adjustments, and let them hold onto the earnings to recapitalize. But those of us who suggest that are being logical and DC--especially now--is anything but logistical, in lots of policy areas.<br /><br />I don't think there is a coherent policy sitting somewhere downtown even now. F&F isn't a priority for the Admin, they like the cash coming in, and in less than two years, it's someone else's problem. Plus, for la intents and purposes, F&F are working and in Congress few things are addressed when there is no immediate problem, especially when so many other issues (Iran, Syria, North Korea, China, Russia, immigration, equal rights, abortion, etc.) are off track.<br /><br /> Bill Malonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-58251188589817684042015-08-18T22:06:12.547-07:002015-08-18T22:06:12.547-07:00But in 2005 did you think events would play out li...But in 2005 did you think events would play out like they did? How far off were you on your base case scenario and your worst case scenario? Do you think people in DC could be misjudging what might happen in 3 years? Do you think it could be possible that GSE's would have a better financial situation than the US government and they may HAVE to release them if they want people to get mortgages? Or sell them if the government will need to raise the money. There are so many scenarios just on the unsuitability of the path DC is on. What if things get so corrupt Watts will just take whatever Ackman is offering before the SHTF? The constant is the GSE's are needed by the markets. The GSE's are not FHA, FHA is a disaster comparatively speaking, and the government cant' control the entire mortgage market, when they can barely control themselves (if you call it control). Nobody knows what random direction a kick of a can down the road can take. Maybe the Delaware court rules against them. Who the hell knows what unstable government like we currently have can do. You do realize they are unstable, right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-5004000835289776862015-08-18T20:12:08.365-07:002015-08-18T20:12:08.365-07:00Well nobody ever has been behind the stock which i...Well nobody ever has been behind the stock which is why so many shareholders (including lots of Fannie employees) lost lots and lots of money when the stock went from the high $65 dollars a share to a few bucks. Same thing at Freddie.<br /><br />One of the issues I worked on--in 1994, I believe--was when then Congressman Phil Gramm R-Tex. (later to become Senator Phil Gramm and Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee) added statutory language to the F&F charters saying (paraphrasing) "The securities of Fannie and Freddie are not backed by the full faith and credit of the US government," to draw a distinction between our debt and MBS and Treasury securities, which explicitly had the federal government behind them.<br /><br />I believed that was the law and all of our debt and MBS securities had to bear that printed inscription so that purchasers would have no doubt and think they were buying government backed debt or mortgage bonds.<br /><br />That was the case for the 21 years I worked at Fannie and Gramm's language de facto what had been the case previously. (The best evidence for that is Treasuries always traded better than F&F debt.).<br /><br />That was my opinion and belief, until the Paulson Treasury took over F&F in 2008 and formally put "Uncle Sam" behind the GSE securities, although they'll still weasel word about it. (The reason the Admin/Treasury fly two flags here is, if they admitted the government backed the GSEs, their $5 Trillion in F&F debt and securities would have to go on the federal budget. Bill Malonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-44252329615684069362015-08-18T19:41:28.500-07:002015-08-18T19:41:28.500-07:00Let me ask you this. Did you think FNMA would be i...Let me ask you this. Did you think FNMA would be in the situation its in in 2005? If someone asked you in 2005 who stands behind the GSE's equity and preferred stock, what would your response be? That's what randomness means. It does applies to the US too. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-40680947374782829112015-08-18T13:32:12.298-07:002015-08-18T13:32:12.298-07:00Don't confuse the F&F common and preferred...Don't confuse the F&F common and preferred stock--behind which nothing/nobody stands--with the $5 Trillion in GSE debt and mortgage securities about which the government cares and likely stands behind (certainly enough to stop a run if that ever happened).<br /><br />Those are the instruments owned by the foreign central banks and large institutional investors, whose fate (and balance sheets) Treasury/the WH certainly hold dear.Bill Malonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-15736135304727440862015-08-18T11:45:45.103-07:002015-08-18T11:45:45.103-07:00They may need to be forced to sell GSE's at wh...They may need to be forced to sell GSE's at what they can get now instead of cashflows in the future. To sell them, you need to settle shareholders issues. Look at Greece. UK had to privatize everything to raise cash. But they didn't have the debt we have and now things move much faster. That's one scenario.<br /><br />The bad one is of course Pinochet after Allende. I hope we don't have that. There are worse scenarios as well. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-38548761643376200352015-08-18T09:01:48.921-07:002015-08-18T09:01:48.921-07:00Ironically, the only "market resolution"...Ironically, the only "market resolution" I can envision is if bad things happen, across the board (think 2008), the market goes nuts, and the government (or Congress) tries tinkering with the mortgage market's operational apparatus.<br /><br />But, I've always believed that the "market," from consumers and professional players (builders, Realtors, and lenders--including the TBTF guys), and institutional investors in F&F debt and MBS love having the two around.<br /><br />I don't see the "market" however it is defined rising up and demanding F&F being dramatically be altered or euthanized legislatively (some version of the old CWJC).Bill Malonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-6362205511321514222015-08-18T06:30:04.247-07:002015-08-18T06:30:04.247-07:00Bill, you are confusing punishment with the resolu...Bill, you are confusing punishment with the resolution. I have no doubt nobody will get punished except random people and US populace. That's the whole point of irresponsible government operating with no recourse. <br /><br />To Bill, and Anon. <br />You think the resolution is going to be somewhat willing. The whole point is that markets are unpredictable and random. They have many manifestations. All your arguments assume the people in control now will be in control of the decision then. It is probably not going to be the case. That's the whole point of the markets, people who like too tight a control lose it rapidly and unexpectedly. I only have terrible examples off the top of my head. It may not be the worst case scenario.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-27034523366520593512015-08-17T14:59:33.002-07:002015-08-17T14:59:33.002-07:00According to anon @ 10:41 AM there are 2 actors: a...According to anon @ 10:41 AM there are 2 actors: adminstrative (the President) and the courts. The third one, Congress, has been deemed meaningless right out of the bat. But anon adds a 4th and fundamental actor: the markets.<br /><br />I truly fail to see in which ways the markets will force the issue and defeat whatever strategy (delays, delays, delays) the government has put into place.<br /><br />What form this market storm will take? Will there be a mass exodus of employees? Or will they barricade and strike in front of their headquarters? Will some institution(s) dump all MBS hitting long term yields and bonds? Will someone call China, Russia and Japan and to dump their mortgage bonds and stop any further buying?<br /><br />Where is that market force going to come from and how will it make this end? You are not talking about the shadow board of directors representing shareholders that Ackman mentioned in his latest CC, are you? lol. Or are you saying there will be a colossal scare market dive and scare a-la-2008 by which Obama will decide on his own to end the conservatorships and let the companies operate freely and independently hoping that this will restore order?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-89679572396191176502015-08-17T14:18:40.831-07:002015-08-17T14:18:40.831-07:00I don't have real good answers to your questio...I don't have real good answers to your questions/observations.<br />But, I'll return to something I wrote initially.<br /><br />For a huge percentage of these officials their official memories and responsibilities end after the next national general election (Nov. 2016), unless someone chose to wrote a "tell all GSE book.".<br /><br />Who will say anything to them or care about them in 2017, if they screwed up in 2012 and kept up the ruse for three or more years?<br /><br />The DoJ lawyers will go to law firms; Treasury officials might end up on Wall Street or close.<br /><br />I know it is very frustrating, but it's what happens in DC--and not just with the GSEs.Bill Malonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-29405400815958162792015-08-17T12:04:39.312-07:002015-08-17T12:04:39.312-07:00Refusing to cut losses has destroyed many men and ...Refusing to cut losses has destroyed many men and institutions. They try to control the entities that's were comparable to the US Treasury by fiat. Its a much safer bet they fail spectacularly than the weak tactics of stalling to buy time that's employed. Again, this approach has ended badly through out history, why would it work here? It's uncharted territory too, as far as the size and economic footprint are concerned, so who knows what will happen? I believe they can control the courts, the markets, not so much. They need market confidence, so at some point something will get sacrificed, or maybe the worst case scenario plays out. I don't know. I know that this is hope and prey from the government side, and I know how that ends. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-34900903465101893832015-08-17T11:10:38.643-07:002015-08-17T11:10:38.643-07:00I don't disagree.
But, also there is a time f...I don't disagree.<br /><br />But, also there is a time factor, as well as the cynical "it's only F&F," which come into play. I think this WH will everything it can to avoid backtracking here, which they might if a court doesn't strongly rule against them.<br /><br />Absent that, they can blithely claim they are right, keep dodging the bullet, and before we all know it, there will be a national election, a new President, and these current Admin guys--including BHO--can retreat to wherever and the new guy/woman will have to deal with it.Bill Malonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17459277100798719104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-940142538364421402.post-9065151383732840032015-08-17T10:41:25.467-07:002015-08-17T10:41:25.467-07:00I don't think something as fundamental to the ...I don't think something as fundamental to the housing market, and thus to the US economy will ultimately be decided by the courts nor do I believe that the Obama administration willingly will change its stance. They are locked to the strategy where their hand will be forced to do what's needed. It's lately the general strategy of the US bureaucrats. At this point, their ability to chose an exit is gone. They will be forced to act by the market. That's what Ackman means when he says that there will be an administrative release. Unfortunately, that puts a lot of people in the corner. Nobody sane should chose an option of forced resolution, but unfortunately that's what the government painted themselves into. And unfortunately, the government being in the corner will not limit themselves only to the GSE's. It's a poor public policy to fight until the bitter end. The people in charge don't seem to understand it. It ends one way or the other, but it will not end on the government terms.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com