Prez
says a little; Lamberth says less,
I hope Fifth Circuit says/does more
I hope Fifth Circuit says/does more
When he addressed the National Association of Realtors last
week, I don’t know if the budget-conscious NAR didn’t offer President Trump a
teleprompter or the POTUS said he didn’t need one?
It’s a shame because the prompter’s presence tends to
produce more serious and better developed presidential commentary. Without one—it
suggests sometimes he’s winging it—and what we got was some airy-fairy nice housing GSE-budget comments
but without much/any substance or timetable.
However, I’ll happily take it (before “Anon1”
reminds me Obama never went that far) and nod approvingly.
I’ll continue to assume there’s a busy team behind President
Trump working on what I think—at this point--is
a tractable issue. (They’ve certainly given enough signs to think that is
the case).
President Trump did say the Admin has “many geniuses
working on the problem” and he/they will bring in the best minds from Wall
Street to help.
But, they’ll be minus Wall Street vet Craig Phillips
contributions. (He can’t be happy staying
on in town who knows how long, no matter what words were put into his mouth.)
Philips announced his “whenever” departure, last week, that also
made me recall Charlie Gasparino’s suggestion several weeks ago that there was
some major internal GSE clashes within the White House working group, which
likely would have covered Mnuchin, Phillips, Otting, Calabria, Kudlow and,
Trump insisted, HUD Secretary Ben Carson
But rumor has it that Carson, the noted former brain
surgeon, has some other issues on his mind. Reportedly, he’s still busy looking for an office dinette set, which meets Mrs.
Ben Carson’s standards.
Apparently, the seldom-seen-heard Carson also is very agitated, after
the 7-11 public relations department asked to come in and take a “milk carton”
photo of the Secretary, “for contingency purposes,” they claimed.
The
Secretary now is feverishly checking his family tree to make sure he isn’t
related to Judge Margaret Sweeney!
Until I see something to the contrary, I will assume
Gasparino’s prediction had something to do with Philips getting elbowed out. If
I had a choice, the next one I’d want “out” is Kudlow.
Judge
Royce Lamberth, next to NADA
Shame on me!
I was hopeful--when I misread the news report on Judge
Lamberth’s May 16, 2019 ruling--and then my hopes largely were dashed,.
The infamous jurist—who issued the original decision, much
cloned by subsequent cowardly colleagues, suggesting the government can do
whatever it wanted to Fannie and Freddie--leaped into the GSE limelight, a
little bit, last week.
Unlike other smarter observers, Maloni (this “AAFL*”)
wanted to believe that Judge Lamberth’s new rejection of defendants (FHFA,
Fannie and Freddie, i.e. the GSE lawsuit “bad guys”) request to reconsider part
of his ruling re plaintiffs rights to challenge the sweep, was something
special for the GSEs. But, I was mostly
wrong.
One
lawyer friend did say it allowed preferred investors to possible secure
contractual damages, but not a lot more, since it requires some Judge/court to
say those investors were damaged,
which hasn’t occurred, yet. (See
Lamberth ruling link below.)
His 5-16 decision put Lamberth albeit mildly and briefly on
the plaintiff’s side.
But more noteworthy, if
you believe/hope/fantasize that Judges talk to one another across
jurisdictions and circuits, the grand optimist in me says—for a judge who might want to clean up his legacy after being lied to
by the government and issuing a ruling he might want to forget—Lamberth’s
opinion is a teasingly perfect gesture setting up a Fifth Circuit Court decision
rejecting the 2012 Treasury “sweep!”
Just so I don’t curse any GSE positives, I am going to do a
heavy Dionne Warwick on this one, i.e. “Wishin', hopin', thinkin',
and prayin', plannin', and dreamin’.”
(*ain’t
a *&^%$#@ lawyer.)
Washington
Post does it, again
The element in me which chortles when I catch the Washington
Post, an avowed anti-GSE editorial opponent, with its lacy hypocrisy showing,
loves these events (which might occur, again, next Saturday, after Monday, May 20th significant GSE stock prices
increases)!
Last Saturday’s Post (May 18), as it does every Saturday in
its business page stock listings, carried its regular “Local Gainers and Losers”
list.
Prominent under “Gainers” were Fannie Mae, with a 4.9%
weekly improvement, and Freddie Mac with its 4.7% gain.
How do you like them apples,”Posties?”
Tough—but not impossible for you—to contend the GSE citizen
investors, along with Uncle Sam’s 79.9% ownership, don’t matter when you celebrate
that performance along with other successful corporations.
Am I
being a “Cassandra?”
Do
GSE eyes bigger than our stomachs=“Danger Will Robinson?”
When I was a kid, announcing my great hunger, asking for
more food than I could possibly eat, and then failing to consume it, my
mother—or one of her doting seven sisters—would say, “See, your eyes were bigger than
your stomach.”
My youthful piggy requests and leave behinds may not be a
perfect analogy, but I am bothered by a lot of the website talk about GSEs
common shares yielding ten or more times their current prices (@$2.70)—I’ve
even seen $100 common estimates--based on nothing more solid than investors’
wild appetites and yield dreams.
Given the GSE stock return multi-year drought, it’s
perfectly understandable when things appear to be going right.
But it may unrealistic and, frankly, because of all of the
tricks still available to the “bad guys,” the results and returns may not
happen just the way we want them!
Although I root for the Trump Admin (Treasury and FHFA) and for the Fifth Circuit
to fix the mess, until it does, don’t borrow against your “winnings” or use
Grandma’s butter and egg savings to leap into greater investments
It may be premature, but some of us are going to commit
that error.
As GSE investors and veterans we should realize there are
no sure things…until there are.
I know I sound like my cautious mother and her
sisters, who were always quick to remind they “had to survive during the
Depression” and remembered lean times and bad things happening.
There’s a reason growing up we were advised to be safe, not
sorry; not to count our chickens before they were hatched; don’t buy that expensive
dress or suit until someone asks you to the dance or offers you that job; don’t make plans that depend on something
good happening before it actually happens, etc. etc.
Good financial luck to all,
just don’t run before you walk!
(Yes, I saw and benefited from Monday’s market
results--clearly stoked by Mark Calabria's bold statements--yet still urging caution/restraint. Note, the rest of my investments lost
me more money yesterday than my GSE positions produced, so what do I know?)
Maloni, 5-21-2019
(Headed to the west coast and family stuff for a week, probably won't write for a while, unless the dramatic happens, i.e. Maloni wins Pulitzer, Nobel Peace Prize, or hits big at the casino.)
(Headed to the west coast and family stuff for a week, probably won't write for a while, unless the dramatic happens, i.e. Maloni wins Pulitzer, Nobel Peace Prize, or hits big at the casino.)
6 comments:
Your urging caution and yet talking about going to a casino to possibly hit it big, lol.
Dan--Thanks for reading and commenting. I like casinos and am a cautious gambler.
Bill, enjoy the family, weather and casinos. Good luck finding that royal flush!
Thanks G--
Two years ago, a small straight flush brought me a small five-figure return, quickly shared with the family out there; hope it happens to me again; but Fannie/Freddie numbers are producing that and more for GSE investors this week.
I joked in my blog about HUD Secretary Carson, but his vapid behavior today before the HBC suggested I wasn't that far off.
I felt bad for the Secretary and his ignorance of what his Department does and what he's supposed to manage and know.
Can't imagine him getting anywhere close to Admin GSE machinations.
Bill,
Another wonderful writing. Very impressed you realize and acknowledge that President Trump and his Administration have the potential of stopping 11 years of Government control of F&F. If it happens (and getting Wall Street Genius’s is concerning) then I’ll be buying you a case of Red MAGA hats for you and your entire family. Mark it down.
Have a wonderful time out west.
Anon#1
I hope to!!
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