Sunday, July 28, 2019

If the WH is waits for the Fifth Circuit before moving on its GSE plan, it is missing a political opportunity and risking trouble



Why wait on the Fifth Circuit???




I am going to try to write some 700 GSE words, without mentioning President Trump in any ill manner. He/it's a 2020 electoral matter, anyway, which I won’t be able to influence, greatly.
********************************************************************************************************* 
If one looks at the Fannie or Freddie GSE pages, on Investor’s HUB (IHub)—but elsewhere, too--you can see a plethora of guesses and wild eyed explanations about why we haven’t heard from the Fifth Circuit en banc reviewing the Collins case. Those thoughts often are accompanied by equally--in the event of a plaintiffs win--soaring stock price touts which follow that writer’s reasoning, including leaps into the “100 per share” for common stock “if XXXXX happens.”
I admire the creativity and certainty some posters put into their prognoses and estimates ( including some speculation about possible court cash awards to plaintiffs) to the point of arguing and debating other “guessers” about topics and timing which remain just as unknowable. 
Hardly sinful, this is just is another version of our beloved “American hot stove,” where sports fans—often when seasonal play ends for their favorite professional teams—postulate and then media-argue about possible trades or other personnel additions and subtractions to and from their favorite squads. (They, too, have as much influence on management as court case watchers have on judges and juries.) 
A great frustration for many judicial observers is the fact that the Fifth Circuit’s decision parameters seem as expansive as the judges’ concepts of possible federal government law violations and possible relief. 
If the Court rules the “sweep” violates the Fourth Amendment against “takings,” the remedies are several. If the Court finds an Administration Procedures Act violation, it could rule additionally against Uncle Sam (the Treasury and FHFA).
If the defense (the government) wins, the only remaining question--barring some Admin executive action--is will the Supreme Court hear a plaintiffs appeal? 
My instincts—because of the “GSE Shitwall” presence—are the Fifth may find for plaintiffs but will go light on financially penalizing Treasury and taxpayers given the huge amount of red ink this Administration currently is recording. 
Despite a certain light investor stirring of the GSE part of the stock market last week, I am surprised the Admin—if it has a ready GSE plan—still holds back implementing it. 
Embedded in this quandary is the possible Calabria/Mnuchin internecine jockeying and who wants what and when?  IMO, it’s time for the Treasury Secretary to stand up, put on his big boy pads,  and use his authority or—if he’s waiting for Calabria—Secretary Steve, patiently, could be waiting until 2024 (as per Calabria to Reuters). 
Whether the financial powers that be want a court decision to force its GSE action plan or give it an excuse for issuing one still is unclear to me. 
I’ve heard it argued both ways and still believe, given its promises and political needs/desires, the WH should act first and position itself to take 2020 political/election credit for ending the “Conservatorship,” rather than letting others claim it only moved because the Fifth Circuit forced it (assuming the Court decides for the plaintiffs). 
The Admin has staked out ending the "Conservatorship," which I am sure PO'd a lot of their political allies and donors. What happens if the Fifth Circuit rejects the plaintiffs and a ton more ideological noise arises when/if President Trump gets louder with his end Conservatorship pledge?
Follow your instincts Mr. President, end the internal belligerence and do it now!
Admin Dumping the “Patch” 
With last week’s news that the Consumer Financial Product Association (CFPB), in two years, will drop the “patch,” an artificial adjustment which allows lenders, the GSEs, FHA and the VA, to finance loans for borrowers with slightly higher debt profiles.
People seem focused on what the impact will be on Fannie and Freddie business (yes, it should mean less), but instead markets/media should be seeing this move as a misguided boon for the big banks?
Looking only at Fannie and Freddie misses a major point. (Also secondarily, it means greater direct risk to the government, since the early proposal doesn’t apply that new criteria to the FHA and VA which still will be able to finance those more risky borrowers, meaning the government is directly behind any losses those federal agencies incur.)
For me a salient point ending the patch is that it will create a new class of “subprime borrowers”—outside the GSE credit parameters--and how many banks will react the way they did pre-2008, overcharging in rates and fees and poorly underwriting risky borrowers, as they seek to fund as many of those mortgagors, replicating the same "PLS" (private label securities) mess they employed to start and accelerate the 2008 financial meltdown?
Unless the Fed, OCC, FDIC, and Treasury see the possibility of history repeating itself and step in and impose constraints on those regulated banks before they pitch the patch or even reconsider the CFPB fix?


Maloni, 7-29-2019











57 comments:

Anonymous said...

Over the past few years seeing and realizing the amount of corruption in our Government, anything is possible. Unfortunately and sad to say, most of the anti-GSE pundits have been very accurate.
My hope is for the truth and nothing but the truth.
As for “given the huge amount of red ink this Administration currently is recording” let us not forget the ten TRILLION dollar debt passed on from Husain. More then all Presidents combined in the history of our great nation. We are also aware it was Ryan and Mitch who gave him the money.
If you are on the left, right or in the middle, it is this Administration that we are hoping will do the right thing.

Anon#1

Bill Maloni said...

Oops, this AAFL conflated the APA issues the en banc Fifth Circuit if reviewing in Collins and the "sweep" legalities Judge Sweeney (still) is examining in Federal Claims court.

They are separate matters.

Bill Maloni said...

Anon#1--

If you stop listening to FOX, you might learn something.

Here's a FORBES article posted just a few hours ago. I think this speaks directly to your red ink fantasy comparing 8 years of Obama to DJT's two years in office.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/07/29/trumps-budget-deficits-could-almost-double-obamas/#64c5a0aa7693

Anonymous said...

I can totally assure you I don’t watch or listen to Chris Wallace or Shepard Smith.

Maybe do some research on who the author of the article is, Chuck Jones. A far left liberal Trump hating Loon.

How about those $1 Trillion shovel ready jobs?

Can we both agree our hope is in the Trump Administration to right the GSE’s? I hoped that Husain and Watt would do it, but didn’t get it done.

Bill Maloni said...

Wait, aren't they the two most progressive of the Fox News faces?

Will you add Hannity, Dobbs, and Laura Ingraham??

I can certainly--and have in my blog--signed onto a legitimate DJT GSE rescue/end of Conservatorship.

We all need remember (see Calabria with capital rates), though, Fannie and Freddie can be freed but still damaged in the process, which is what their opponents seek.

Glad you are on my side, will you oput a "Buttigieg/Harris" sticker on your car?

Anonymous said...

I can’t honestly support either for many, many reasons. I’ll let your mind run why.
The damage is already done and I “think” that in order to be released, due to the political pressures, both sides of the GSE debate will get something. Average shareholders don’t have the financial or political resources that the TBTF Banks have and the continual GS positions at Treasury. Just think, if they only stole half the share value commons would be over $36
Hope you are having a great summer.

Anon #1

Bill Maloni said...

I've been predicting that, because the other side has so much clout.

But, for now, DJT/Mnuchin is the best GSE bet in town.

One odd lot is my belief that Mnuchin, because of his heavy workload, breadth and substance of his challenges, the fact that his wife doesn't much like DC (which probably doesn't care much for her) could be a short-timer, which would royally up[set the GSE applecart, leaving only the courts as possible Fannie/Freddie protectors.

Anonymous said...

Difference between Big banks and GSE shareholders:

One can offer Calabria and other gov officials a high paying job, the other cannot.

Bill Maloni said...

Tru dat!

Anonymous said...

Calabria cannot recap GSEs because he is making major decisions which affect GSE values greatly. No one can reasonable guess the values of GSEs in the future.

NWS likely ends soon, either by court or Mnuchin.

Bill Maloni said...

But, who blows the whistle on Calabria and what court will point out any conflict?

Until you get a ruling, the opinion seems to be (pure Lamberth!!) the federal government can do whatever it wants to Fannie and Freddie.

Bill Maloni said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bill Maloni said...

Picking up a theme I got into a few weeks ago, my sense is that the stock market just began to realize there is no urgency inside this Administration to end the GSE Conservatorship and that's for ideological reasons.

Yes, Fannie and Freddie earnings represent $15-$20 billion in annual revenue, but that fact gives the bean counters and GSE critics, Kudlow and Mulvaney a convenient, face-saving excuse to hide behind and call for delay.

Bill Maloni said...



WARNING, no new GSE blog until matters offer some new developments.

But, I may offer something(s) on El Paso, Dayton (not Toledo, Mr. President~!) and assault weapons.

Anonymous said...

While you are at it, include Chicago, Baltimore, San Francisco, Detroit and any of the loony lefts cities they have controlled for decades. Then show how after 2 1/2 years it’s automatically President Trumps fault. I am sure you will be fair and balanced with reliable sources.

Anonymous said...

........and how in 2018 there were 72,000 deaths from overdose yet we don’t need Boarder control. For shock comparison there were 58,000 killed over 20 year period in the Vietnam War.
This past weekend in Democrat controlled Chicago and hometown of the past President, it was THE DEADLIEST weekend with 52 wounded and seven dead.
One weekend.
Liberals are phonies. Hypocrites, dishonest, greedy for power and most importantly get nothing done. Zero. Zip. Nada.
Looking forward to your new blog.
Anon #1

Bill Maloni said...

Anon#1 (if that's you), are you feeling warm and fuzzy over what happened in El Paso and Dayton or horrified and sick at the carnage?

Is this president able to express any kind of remorse for what may be his role in stoking up the rightwing crazies, or blaming others as he and the entire GOP leadership has?

Do you think most of those living in El Paso, were targeted--given the city's heavy Mexican based population--by DJT's constant references to Mexcian immigrants as "rapists and murderers?"

Or, to you, is the mood in America just serendipitous?

The guy you love to hate, BHO, showed more compassion and concern about the victims, their families, and the nation than the guy you elected to be President or as DJT might Tweet, "Sad, just so Sad!"

BTW, I sent out my thoughts yesterday. I suggested people read two columns, written by prominent Republicans, George Will and Michael Gerson, both of which appeared yesterday in the Washington Post.

Michael Gerson
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-doesnt-just-pollute-the-social-environment-he-is-the-environment/2019/08/05/65cb525a-b7b6-11e9-b3b4-2bb69e8c4e39_story.html


George Will
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/promoting-love-and-unity-goes-against-trumps-political-brand/2019/08/05/2223db56-b7b8-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html


TruGld said...

Please stop with the Mass shooting alt right wing nonsense...The rule is 4+ is considered a "mass shooting"
146 mass shootings so far this year are unsolved...have fun going to Chicago and figuring out the rest I couldn't count.
of these.. 16 suspects have been IDENTIFIED as black, latino, and 0 white.
The remaining cases have no suspect description issued....that's not conjecture...its cold hard numbers period.
Also of the 146 unsolved mass shootings so far counted thus far 21 are in the beautiful blue state of CHICAGO, 8 are in BALTIMORE, 7 IN Washington DC AND 6 PHILIDELPHIA
All of this is according to research I've worked through and can be done relatively easily...just google EVERY SINGLE incident on the Wikipedia page before it was taken down..."can't figure out why"....for mass shootings and read local news articles about them. If I'm wrong...have at it...and ask Wikipedia why the relevant data was scrubbed..but I'm pretty consistent and obsessive about this issue. Lastly I would love to see a website detailing how many times a gun has prevented an assault ro saved a life...but lets be honest. How long would google let that stay relevant...

TruGld said...

Chicago alone...defuncts any BS about this being an Crazy White issue...I will take that bet all day. But then again how often did CNN report on Obama's Chicago.
I am not a Trump supporter and wasn't an Obama or Hilary supporter
I was brought up to vote and decide on integrity...anyone that thinks you should vote for the lesser of two evils...go to your children and tell them you don't have to be "completely honest, or carry yourself with a full sense of integrity, and even better it's ok to steal AS LONG AS IT'S NOT A LOT, lie AS LONG AS IT'S NOT A BIG LIE, or cheat AS LONG AS ITS NOT REALLY EGREGIOUS.. your partner, community, lover, wife, husband.

TruGld said...

If you want to have some real fun...start looking at the correlation between usage of antidepressants/psychotics and not only the occurrences of shootings but the inflection point of when they started and when the healthcare community started to prescribe them in massive quantities.
No tinfoil hat...just look at the numbers.

TruGld said...

BTW I meant debunks not defuncts...

Bill Maloni said...

TruGld--Thanks for your contribution.

Hard to disagree with anything you said, but what's the lesson for today?

There have been two years of bizarre leadership, a massive inconsistency from the highest office in the land, including unambiguous race-baiting, constant lying, scapegoating, abuse of international allies, snuggling with North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, off the cuff foreign policy conducted by amateurs--with the inevitable results--presidential tariffs on foreign countries which fall more on US citizens than DJT's enemies, did I mention egregious and ongoing lying and deception, and on and on.

In the face of that, what is your counsel here and now?

TruGld said...

Let's ask this question..did you come out and shake your finger as vigorously as you have with this current administration when Obama was as inconsistent and erratic in his policies....and please don't make me list them.
It might be a bit more challenging or even eye opening as we can both agree the coverage was absent in many cases.
IF you can say yes then we can start on a landscape unobstructed with biases and walk in field of both transparency and truth. IF you cannot then it's just an empty offer and opinion editorial no better than those that white washed (no pun intended) everything from "you can keep your healthcare" to the "fast and furious" lies in Benghazi?
What say you my friend?

TruGld said...

I went to school in Boston...lived there for 15 years.
Funny thing, my first apartment, my roommates would walked in the room with just a nightlight on so as not too wake up anyone and occasionally you might catch a glimpse of a cockroach, but when the lights came back on there they were plain as day looking for some place to run.
I'm betting if the "lights" were in full working order we might have seen a LOT more cockroaches or better yet even some that weren't really there...12 years ago...or so.

Anonymous said...

BHO, showed more compassion and concern about the victims, their families, and the nation than the guy you elected....
Really Bill? In Chicago … almost 4,000 have been killed while Barack Obama was president.” One city. His city. Imagine if he wasn’t compassionate?
......are you feeling warm and fuzzy over what happened in El Paso and Dayton...... that sir is a typical demented liberal comment. Unfair, cruel and ignorant but how ideologues roll. They are like the cheating husband who is checking their wife’s mileage and phone.
Anon#1,

Bill Maloni said...

TruGld/Anon#1--

All of my 12 years worth of blogs, some 600+, appear on this site.

I urge you to look back at what I said about BHO, whom I liked, but felt was weak--especially on foreign policy ("redline in the sand") and with the Russians/Putin. My anger/upset at what he and his Admin did tot he GSEs hardly was accepting, wither.

But he was a far better traditional leader and could relate to the diversity of America (it's changing guys whether you want it to or not) and the aspirations of so many, which the current POTUS couldn't do on his best day, as he just ahs displayed.

DJT gets to Ohio and then--his insecurity and inferiority complex kicks in--and he forgets the nation he's supposed to lead and heal and starts complaining about what the Mayor and Senator Brown say (which if you read the interviews were constructive and complimentary).

























ND WITH THE rUSSIAN

TruGld said...

I have never heard you mention the lengthy process the country had to endure with Fast and Furious or the lives that were effected...
Even worse, the lies/corruption that were blatantly ignored with Louis Lerner...that in itself is just as prejudice as wielding the race card.
Using the full weight of the government to suppress free speech, hindered and dismantled more political adversaries than the 50,000 on facebook. Attacking someone of the basis of skin color is no different than attacking them for religion or political beliefs...so much for a voice of the minority Barack...even better who gave it the attention it deserved...did you?
IRONICALLY, NOT ONE person asked a VERY important question on the left with sincere honesty.
I have always said during the campaign BHO was not a president he could ACT presidential but he was nothing more than a Hollywood president that was it...he was black and that's why he got in, period. He was a statement nothing more. It was that fact alone that left him untouched by the media...but still NO ONE, NOT ONE person has asked the question.
WHY? Why has a party that was responsible for bringing the country's first black man to the WH lose so many WHITE voters? I'm talking about the OVERWHELMING "white" numbers that came out to vote for BHO, the same baby boomers and GenX's that PUT him there, not once, but TWICE!
That, regardless of whether or not you or ANY one in the mainstream media want to admit are ALL OF A SUDDEN RACIST! That, is the most disgusting, vile, myopic view ANY left wing voter/supporter can say...(no I don't think you are disgusting but like all of us you can wade into the pool of myopic every now and then)
I did not vote for Trump or Hilary or Obama, or Bill they were liars, thieves, murderers, and not worthy of the highest position in the greatest country on earth, but, the discussion in this country seems to be "if I don't like your choice, I will not ask you why, or even reflect on the possible reasons....you are obviously RACIST, PRIVILEGED, OR A MISOGYNIST."...or even a "right wing crazy"
Please understand, I LOVE your blog, I really appreciate your input and knowledge but the use of the terminology the left & the right has used is not doing anything to unify this country....perhaps a different approach is in order, and I'm open to any and all suggestions.
Sincerely,
A proud, educated, white, worked hard to be privileged, gun toting, pro choice supporting, civil union believing, pay for your own damn insurance, but welfare should be accessible not abused to those in need (as a former recipient I can understand)...., this country can't compete without immigration in a SENSIBLE manner (as the 1st generations son of an immigrant)....there is nothing wrong with sparking up a doobie if you're responsible and old enough....reader. ;-)

Bill Maloni said...

That's a lot to chew on Tru---

You must really be unhappy.

Absolute truth, I had basically the same conversation today with my 97 year old Aunt.

Changes from the "way things were when I was growing up" just bedevil her.

If you were President, how would you address the issues you raise?

And what is DJT doing to deal with them which you approve?

TruGld said...

I'm a very happy man....I married a beautiful Latina, we spoil our family, eat a little too much, and live to laugh.
Hmm where to start...I would,
Finish Obama's unkept promise of abolishing lobbyists.
Throw out every single senator and congressman with any link to special interests...severe the ties between wall st., banks, corporations, and the people that represent us. Reform the compensation packages ea and everyone of them get. Try to attract people that want to serve our country not run for student council.
Undo what Bill Clinton had done with the telecommunications act...
JAIL EVERY SINGLE BANKER INVOLVED IN THE 2008 HEIST....yes Heist. If you got fined you go to jail not some schmuck, people that are "privileged".
Then REALLY start sending people to jail...Obama, Louis Lerner, the Fast and Furious crew, Bush, Cheney, Powell, Rice, Clintons,....EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM THAT DESTROYED THE LIVES AND WELL BEING OF THOSE THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO PROTECT.
Then on the third day...free ice cream on the front lawn for the first 10,000 children that show up and a suggestion box on who to jail next.
How's that sound?
and What would you do?

Anonymous said...

More and more I am thinking that Bill’s hate for President Trump is more rooted in something else. How can anyone instantly hate someone as much as Bill has written in a Blog? I mean vile, unfiltered pure hate.
Is it Trumps great success as a Billionaire accumulating $10 Billion of personal wealth? Is it that he raised educated, respectful children? That he speaks truth to power? Exposing mass government corruption? It can’t possibly be his numerous record breaking policies. It can’t be the economy. Black unemployment? Not that. Hmmmmm. My guess is it’s the R next to his name.
TruGlad, you are an amazing person and I agree with most of your comments. I have been mostly alone on countering Bill on his commentary but really come for the GSE stuff. Bill always portrays disagreement with somehow being unhappy or racist to stop any dialogue. Learned behavior.
MAGA.
KAGA.

Anon#1

Anonymous said...

BTW, I don’t hate Husain or anyone. Just that he was an unqualified street walker (troublemaker) who never created anything or solved any problems, came out of nowhere and became President because he is an eloquent speaker and all the White guilt put on America.
If you have a successful business, you didn’t build that. What?
Hold on to your Bible and Guns. What?
Decorate the White House in colors of the Rainbow? From a professed Christian. What?
Pro Abortion from a professed Christian. What?
Who takes two years to produce their Birth Certificate?
Look closely to who he surrounded himself with. Look very close. American haters. Not one or two. Many.
I agree. He was on a worldwide Hollywood tour.
Trump studied for decades upon decades. He studied How Jesse Ventura was elected decades ago. He was the most prepared person in our lifetime to go to DC and without question the strongest person ever to take on the massive abuse, fraud and corruption he takes daily.
No one more qualified for a time like now.

Anon #1

Bill Maloni said...

So, going forward, I'll put you down as "Yay Trump" and "Nay everyone who criticizes him."

TruGld said...

I am definitely not a Trump supporter as I've said before, I am in the camp that this country needs to look outside the box and start voting on integrity and NOT the "lesser of two evils".
My disgust in politics lies in the rhetoric that has devolved into mud slinging instead of a healthy exchange...more importantly the blind finger pointing we've seen on both sides of the aisle by not only the bulk of our country but sadly the more educated/cosmopolitan.
I thoroughly enjoy Bill's blog and I feel fortunate to have anyone that has spent time on the hill share his views even if I don't agree with them, I just have a proclivity to challenge lopsided discussions, but make no mistake his wisdom is GREATLY appreciated even when I don't agree.

Bill Maloni said...

TG--Thanks for the nice comments and know the blog always is open for appropriate discussion of conflicting opinions.

But its 500 or so regular readers seem to prefer GSE matters.

Stay cool and hydrated!

TruGold said...

LOL! Agreed...some insight on the JPS meeting that took place a while ago would be interesting if you've been able to get a line on that?
If a nice Caymus Cab counts as hydration I will follow through later this afternoon!!

Bill Maloni said...

Which particular JPS meeting do you mean?

TruGld said...

I remember leaving a comment on your last post about a JPS meeting that took place and you were in the process of trying to find out what was discussed...The name of the participant escapes me, but you acknowledged and was working on it...do you have some way of going back to the last post?

Bill Maloni said...

Yes, I remember our exchange, was the meeting in NYC? I think I spoke to someone who was present but (as he explained) "wasn't supposed to be in the room."

If my fading memory is accurate, I think what he told was that the meeting was just talking and it had no substance or anything definitive P investors could--excuse the pun--take to the bank?.

But, as I ruminate with you now, isn't that whole matter influx to be decided by the court or the White House?

Won't the courts determine the role/value of the JPS, when the Fifth Circuit finally issues a decision or the Admin makes that call if it thinks paying off the JPS is key to buyers putting cash into whatever successor they choose for the GSEs???
It's like so much in the overall case, either the JPS owners have an inviolable contract with the Treasury (by virtue of Paulson's promises to the original group of smaller financial institutions which bought the paper) or Treasury, backed by the courts can ignore the "contract" and send a horrible message to those they hope will reinvest in whatever new scheme they try and cobble together to replace the GSEs?

TruGld said...

I had a feeling the meeting had nothing material to discuss....as far as the JPS I am as ignorant on the structure and the promises that are to kept by the government and I won't pretend to know.
I am curious to know if they are non-cumulative or not, my research is limited to the commons and the commons alone with recognition of the JPS and the potential for dilution but the contract they are structured under...no idea.
if they are noncumulative then they are not legally obligated to pay dividends if they are then the negotiations I think will turn into an ugly mess...
My view has always been they are leaving C-ship and under what terms will mean a lot in the immediate but in the longterm a buy in under 2.00 with one of the most profitable companies in the world....well it's an asymmetric bet for the patient (and relatively young).
That has been my thesis from the beginning and until it materially changes I'm ahead of the game ;-)

Bill Maloni said...

Truth--I am close to where you are if not a little behind.

Tim Howard understands all of this and will answer blog questions, as long as the Q's are not a disguised effort to make him speculate on ultimate or interim value if "such and such would happen!"

The guy who was my (limited Source) or what happened at that meeting and who got me into the P's--believes JPS are contracts and therefore that issues can't be avoided by Treasury--again, in some form--or anything the government puts in place, which requires private capital, won't see much of that.

It's part of my "GSE Shitwall" theory that 11 years into the process nobody really knows if there is real value in GSE P and C shares or just a functional use if those securities are printed on very soft paper (no "Wall pun" intended).

TruGld said...

I've interacted with TH and grateful he offers his view but at one point he was rather terse about a post I brought to his attention...which actually seems to be playing out exactly as the question I posed to him, but I've refrained from pointing it out to him.
The funny part is the Rule of Law Guy posted something a bit more eloquent but exactly what I said right after TH's dismissal of my post...
Always struck me how sometimes the more intelligent someone is, the more parochial they can be when the sources are not familiar or not deliberately written with uh da big words.
But...I'm not that smart sooo ;-)

Bill Maloni said...

TG--
I've known Tim for 35+ years and "yes," he can be terse and "doesn't suffer mortgage system fools gladly." (But, it's his extensive personal insights and his blog and he responds only to those inquiries where he believes he's adding facts to the public dialog.)

But, he still is one of the most amazingly smart mortgage and mortgage securities guys I ever met, as his detailed blog answers show.

I also am a ROLG fan!

TruGld said...

I hold no grudges and give credit where credit is due....he owns the soapbox, otherwise I would have pointed out that I was right and made sure he knew it...but like I said I will stay in my lane and will continue to do so unless I feel I need to speak up and when I do I won't be the fool that suffered.
I can hold my own but I tend to have better social graces than most so a verbal lashing is often excused once.....just once. ;-)

Bill Maloni said...

TG--

See Gmail address, below this comment box, if you want to discuss this matter, more?

TruGld said...

? don't see any email address, but it's ok there really isn't anything else...if you'd like to put it out for more discreet conversations in the future feel free and I will as well in the response

Anonymous said...

Dear Bill, TG,

I have read many times that the Pfds are non-cumulative. That means if the company declares no dividends, there are no dividends. End of story.

I dont think there exists any "contract" between pfd instrument holders and the company - that would be a loan agreement. Only in directly negotiated loan agreements are there promises to pay principal and interest - and consequences are set out in the event of non-payment.

Simply stated, pfd holders receive their full dividends before any dividend can be paid to common stock holders. That is the truest definition of preferred stock. As no dividends paid to commons, no dividend is owed to pfds.

As to the shenanigans caused by the NWS and how UST inserted itself like a giant blood sucking tick: Senior instruments are highest up the creditor list so I expect the court to say, "OK, your 10% interest rate comes first in the order of satisfying payments, but everything over that is owed back to the companies."

And when that money comes back to the companies it should be used first and foremost to build capital reserves so these companies are safe. Who in their right mind thinks it should flow out to pfd holders? No sane person thinks that. Only pfd holders think they are owed past-dividends "because i bought pfd shares, they are preferred, I get paid first, bla bla bla."

When you buy a pfd instrument you get dividends before commons and you sit above them in the event of bankruptcy. Neither of those events have occurred here.

Pfds should get par when their issue becomes due and receive dividends if and when the companies have capital and earnings of appropriate levels. Until then the companies build capital.

Anonymous said...

And, my first and last comment regarding politics:

Lets all leave our opinions to ourselves

I find you can never convince anyone who already has an opinion. Never Trumpers and MAGA will stay what they are and never allow themselves to consider oposing views. Waste of time and just gets people all riled up.


Finally, Bill, thanks for all you do. I appreciate your blog very much.
Sincerely,
ACK

TruGld said...

ACK....Probably one of the BEST comments I've read to date.
Thanks for the input!

ACK said...

TG, thanks but which comment did you like? About non-cumulative divs for pfds or about political opinions? All the best, ACK

TruGld said...

Both...the full synopsis on shares structure and to keep politics out of the discussion (not necessarily the part that people won't change their minds, I did, family and friends did, general population did, ie Trump...but again this is a venue for GSE debate, information, and general knowledge.

Bill Maloni said...

No, it's my blog and I get the final word.

Ergo, I give you both "the best comments" award. Congrats.

For time being, I'll hold onto $1,000,000 in gold which goes with the designation, but you'll hear from me soon..maybe, honest.

ACK, I hear you, just know that it is very difficult to discuss GSEs without getting into "politics and ideology."

If they just were judged only on their national/international value, success, effectiveness, and efficiency, they and their shareholders ("My God, they have shareholders???") would be enjoying long naps every day.

TruGold said...

I forfeit the gold and will gladly accept a nice cabernet or two, maybe Three....yup Four, four sounds fair.

Bill Maloni said...

Will I (largely a non-wine drinker) find that near the diet soda at Safeway?

TruGld said...

If your drinking mad dog 20/20 yes....if you're drinking opus ...not so much

Bill Maloni said...

In those days, it also was "Thunderbird."

G. Buckman said...

Back in "those days" my palate had acquired a taste for the always classy, yet affordable, Fred G. Sanford drink of choice....Champipple. Made by mixing one part Champale malt liquor and one part Ripple fortified wine.

Ah, the good life!

Bill Maloni said...


GB--
I forgot back then you were an "urban chemist."