Monday, November 16, 2015

Keep the GSE World in Perspective

France and Some Other Stuff, Not as Important!

My deepest condolences to the French people and my wishes for the recovery of all of their wounded.

I hope this is a lesson for President Obama that this kind of evil—which is far reaching—can’t be met with half measures and soft vows, promises and erasable red lines.

If we can’t kill the idea of “radical Islam,” then at least our nation relentlessly can lead like minded others, as long as that takes, to send a huge majority of these extremists to purgatory!

GSE Trends

There are some hopeful GSE signs.

The most optimistic GSE development for me—when not too many material things have developed-- is the increased volume of articles, discussions, books, and now animated commentaries on Fannie and Freddie activities, supporting their operational future and considerations of how to bring their systemic benefits to the nation.

That’s very recent occurrence and, going forward, it will help shed more light on the bizarre, highly questionable, and sometimes thuggish GSE treatment meted out initially by the Bush Administration and later the Obama crew.

I told a good friend that I believe the GSE die is cast regarding significant reform, no matter who wins the White House in 2016.

Republicans or Democrats controlling the coming Congress will face the same hurdles they did a year ago, when the Senate tried to create a new secondary mortgage market mechanisms.

The next Congress will encounter the same uncertainty, unknowns, fears of a clunky and unresponsive “new” mortgage market, with a bevy of conflicting stakeholders leaning on both parties, sowing fear and worry.

A resolution also is significantly jacketed by the many court challenges, which likely will go all the way up to the Supreme Court, because of the amount of money involved and the significance of possible government law breaking or Constitutional violations.

The GSE plaintiffs, some just plain folks and others the well-heeled institutional investors, seem to have deep pockets and the wherewithal to go the distance, which doesn’t mean they will win, just that they’ll keep the issue in doubt until a final legal decision is rendered or the government seeks an accommodation.

Yes, a new President--more receptive to the Fannie’s and Freddie’s mission and financing role-- might be able reasonably to fix the mess the current Administration leaves, but some core issues still will face a Republican President or a Democrat and how those folks decipher the GSE history and its effective operational reality.

For me, that’s where the plethora of new Fannie and Freddie information and sources comes into play.

I have no idea if a real Fannie and Freddie knowledge ever will reach the public’s level of understanding. But more and greater material and public discussion could have that result, meaning those business and political elements which created up the largest and most distortive anti-GSE “crap wall” should have the most to lose. And you know who you are.

Circulated throughout the GSE World

One of those new GSE websites (information, no prose and palaver) that has done a superb job making material is “GSE Links,” which I extolled in the blog before.

(It’s made any links I offer redundant, but who cares, since more is better?)
Last week, it carried a link for every item I am highlighting in this week’s blog.

From the Mouths of Babes

If you haven’t seen this fabulous animated video, revealing a mortgage savvy daughter of a GSE executive lamenting all of the lies and anger surrounding “her father’s company” and who did what to whom preceding the 2008 financial meltdown, you missed something neat.

Those of you who agree with this sentiment, figure out clever ways to use with your friends, relatives, and others.

Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.); They're Coming

If he hasn’t donned them already, I advise Senator Corker to put on his big boy football pads and helmet.

Major media—and even a few in Tennessee--are looking into the Senator’s personal financial dealings, as already signaled by Brody Mullins in the WSJ. But there are others.

As I responded to my buddy, “Mr. F” when he sent me the Valuewalk article linked below, detailing the Senator Corker’s 900 or so stock trades in 2014 (when did he have time for the public’s Senate business?), I speculated to him a lot of those companies, whose stock Corker bought and sold, have issues before the Senate Banking Committee, both specifically and generally. I wonder how many had their lobbyists visit Senator Bob to discuss with him their needs, difficulties, and problems.

Fortune Magazine and the GSEs

One of the best, objective, and comprehensive GSE articles appeared last week in Fortune Magazine, from the hand of Roger Pariloff, a writer with whom I am not familiar. But, write more, Roger!

It’s the type of high profile article in a major magazine that seldom appeared two years ago, save when Bethany McLean would write about GSEs.

Fiderer Nails Stegman

David Fiderer—this time writing in National Mortgage News--unleased his sharp rapier and skewered Mike Stegman, again last week.

It can’t happen enough to drive some of the hot air and institutional arrogance from one of the President’s top GSE spokesmen and show up the BS Stegman has peddled for so long.

Eventually, it will catch up with Stegman, or—as Fiderer likes to say about deceivers--”They can run but he can't hide.”

What Others Are Saying

Presidential Corner

Did Hillary Lose Dem Debate?

Did GOP Candidates Send Coded Messages to Wall Street??
(They weren’t in code if you know the issues and the talk!)

If you think the R candidates don’t know crap about GSEs, just wait till you hear them talk about the Fed and monetary policy???

Bush needed to be better and wasn’t

Dr. Carson, welcome to the big time; as Mr. Dooley said, “Politics ain’t bean bag.”

GOP Sours on Bush??


Is Pastor Cruz, Ted’s Dad, telling Tall Tales?

Fannie and Freddie Corner

Strength and Weaknesses of B.Shapiro-E.Kamarck; New Fannie and Freddie Recap and Release Plan


Wayne Olsen on Shapiro-Kamarck


Maloni, 11-16-2015


G. Buckman said...

Bill, as always, good "stuff" and thanks for your weekly efforts!

Here's hoping something real comes from the "Corky Inquisition".

Ben, you are a god amongst men!

Bill Maloni said...

Thatks GB.

Reportedly, BB threw for more yards than any non-starting QB in NFL history, coming in as a relief QB.

Back to GSE stuff.

I feel like a seer. I write about more GSE attention trending and today's Wash Post has this Samuelson positive op-ed piece.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the less gloomy article.

Links aside, no comments on the B.Shapiro-E.Kamarck paper? I thought it was very detailed regarding how low income households could benefit by State and segment should the companies are recapitalized the way they propose.

Bill Maloni said...

I'm sorry Anon, I thought I commented on the proposal last week.

I liked it but, no matter how it looks it faces the same environment I described in he blog today.

It's as good a way as any to go, but the best approach in my view is some slight alterations in the current F&F mechanism--including severing most of the perceived federal ties, but not the regulation--and letting them perform.

If the market embraces them--as I think it will--that will be the best test of their strength and capacity to continue supporting the primary mortgage market through their secondary market actions.

Anonymous said...

And severing perceived federal ties would mean?
paid-for explicit guarantee for specific mortgages?

Bill Maloni said...

This is where it gets dicey, but I never thought the GSEs needed the "$2.5 Billion" Treasury draw to be successful. Others may not agree.

But, I think they can and should go forward without anything that says "federal guarantee or indicia of agency status," since the history of the institutions, alone, might tell the market the opposite.

That may never happen, but that's what I would wish for if the Congress ever did a structural reform.

Again, because of that history (the 2008 bailout when the law said Uncle Sam didn't stand behind the GSEs), no future mortgage market structure--where FRM's exist--may ever be seen as not guaranteed by the Treasury.

But, we are talking about "what ifs."