Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Off the Top of My Head

What this week’s election could mean for the GSEs?

“Hello Banking Chairperson Maxine Waters!!”

(Note: Blog Drafted on Monday, November 5, the night before the elections.)

When you first read this, I hope, the Democrats will have won the House of Representatives fortifying the chances that the GSEs will be kept alive, not through legislative reform, but by an executive action which Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will realize he must pursue, if anything Fannie and Freddie-positive--even from this Administration confused point of view--is to happen in the next two years.

If the D’s don’t prevail in the House (or far less likely in the Senate), I’ll cry in my diet soda and engage in a gaggle of “woulda, shoulda, couldas.”

But, if the House goes D even if the GOP continues to control the Senate after Tuesday, a 2018 Democrat House success suggests the 2020 elections also could bring a Senate Democratic majority, as so many GOP Senate seats and far fewer Democrats (22R-12D) will be up for grabs, a not perfect ‘yang and yang’ (generally) of this week’s elections when more D’s and Independents (who caucus with Democrats) were up.
One possible view of 2020 shows a heavily wounded Donald Trump, still carrying partisan gashes and lacerations from his first two years in office and a major House setback, positioned to lose his own race too…….if he chooses to run again?

A D controlled House will mean lots of oversight hearings and possible subpoenas which will add angina producing stress to a President who doesn’t like opposition, especially the political/legal kind, to which you must listen or respond. The heat will only intensify the POTUS.

The latter analysis just is my opinion, but after two years of being dissed, Democrats will want some payback, which as we all know is a “b----!” (There is a pun there, too, given the large number of Democrat women running for House seats.
If the POTUS’s 2020 future darkens, I see him electing (pun intended!)  to pack it in rather than risk a national defeat which—unlike this week’s Republican setback in the House—he couldn’t dodge or blame on others, his traditional style.
Contemplating a growing possibility that he faces rejection in his second try for the presidency-- sullying his all-important (phony) self-image of “never losing”--would be a massive personal refutation THAT HIS FRAGILE EGO MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE, so I don’t think he’ll risk it.

DJT will find an excuse not to run, again, to bail, i.e. "Pence is ready"; "I had my turn and did the heavy lifting"; “heel spurs” or the equivalent. 

BTW, I’m not predicting, just noting the possibilities. 

If Democrats Control the House; Net, net Good for the GSEs

The biggest change for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, if Democrats win the House, is Maxine Waters (D-Cal.) will head the House Financial Institutions Committee (what I still call by its old moniker “House Banking”) and set financial agenda, tone and action in that chamber.

If the D’s are close in the Senate, then Waters will try and write GSE legislation. If that doesn’t happen, I believe she will act to preserve and protect the GSEs and possibly seek to cut herself in and deal/negotiate with the Trump White House on any executive regulatory action, which ensures prominent segments of the GSEs stay intact.

It will be fun to watch as Waters and Trump—protagonists since the President first days in office, largely because she’s a Black woman—duke it out with Waters having a much more bully pulpit in 2019 than she’s ever had before.
Don’t forget, she will be pivotal to ongoing big bank efforts to loosen controls on themselves while simultaneously pushing less consumer protection. Watch out banks!

Look for all of the M. Waters praise come gushing from the bank and financial services communities, reflecting her growing prominence.

I hope she and the D Speaker and Majority Leader carefully will add a few new Committee members who really understand housing and mortgage finance issues or want to dig into those subjects. The GSE community lost Dave Capuano (D-Mass.) when he was defeated in his primary election and no Democrat stepped up to replace him.

If anyone reading this knows of has a congressional newbie who understand GSEs and related issues, suggest to your new House Member he or she can add instant value to their congressional service by seeking to join House Financial Services.

They need quickly to convey that desire when they next meet in DC with the House leadership.

Other items, if there is a D House

I won’t go into tortuous detail about all of these possible matters, but you expect far more House oversight and hearings of previous GOP actions and future plans.
--Ways and Means and House Judiciary and Intelligence will seek access to the President’s tax records, to review if any of his past business partners were foreign nationals, with an emphasis on Russian, China, Saudi Arabia, and various Eastern European countries, suggesting violations of US laws and regulations.
--Dems will attempt move a mammoth infrastructure bill, with which the Admin might go along.
--Remembering the predicate of a D House, I expect a major movement on bipartisan opioid legislation, penalizing manufactures and tightening up illegal overseas drug imports—ideally with the opposite happening with non-opioid medication to reduce US consumer drug costs.
--Like it or not, US jobs today--and a greater number going forward--need trained and educated individuals which our school systems just are not producing. We need those successfully educated and trained people and many hardworking others who may not be educated superstars, but want to be in this country and strive as Americans, like many of our US immigrants forbears.
After all of the Democrat anger and noise, I think it is incumbent upon the D party to come up with a comprehensive immigration bill--close to which his acolytes said during the campaign that Trump would support--but also deals with many problems the current system has.

Maloni, 11-7-2018


Anonymous said...

Bill , can you explain Watt's mind? Why he didn't release us ? !!

Bill Maloni said...

I can't; when I voted yesterday--before working the polls--a very pro9minent GSE person, who lives in the neighborhood and is a longtime election judge fixture, discussed the Watt situation, briefly.

The guy believes Watt should be cashiered--but the WH is waiting until his term is up in January to put their person in (no hint at the person's identity); We agreed that MW looks bad and likely is very guilty, but no insight into what Watt is thinking about his situation or, unlikely, the GSEs.

Until he leaves office, I think Mr. Watt is a GSE dead man walking.

Anonymous said...

History and tradition repeats itself, with some interesting data.
Most House Seats Lost by President in Power
2010 Obama: -63
1994 Clinton: -52
1958: Eisenhower: -48
1974 Ford (Nixon): -48
1966 Johnson: -47
1946 Truman: -45
2006 Bush: -30
1950 Truman: -29
1982 Reagan: -26
2018 Trump: -26
Coincidentally, the two lowest are two of the greatest Presidents. Let’s hope this creates incentive for bipartisan legislation.

Bill Maloni said...

I am rooting for that, too, and yesterday was a decent first step against a non-traditional foe.

But, it is amazing that you believe DJT in two years has risen to be one of our "greatest presidents" based on his lying, scandalous personal behavior, egomania, disrespect for media, the poor, most non-white immigrants, did I mention lying, his dealings with the Russians, the Saudis, his deft handling of North Korea, boorish behavior with our historic allies, his lack of understanding and appreciation of the Constitution and the civic principles which made our country great.

Up until yesterday, he controlled both houses of Congress and drove a gigantic tax cut bill that so heavily favors the wealthy and the haves. Yet it will be paid for--for generations--by you, me, our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren.

That's more than just "robbing Peter to pay Paul, it's robbing Peter Bill, Anon, Mary, Juliette, and Harry and still run short trying to pay Paul," because the President wants more tax cuts and deficit spending, as he said today.

I thought most R's oppose that purposeful red ink?

Before you go to sleep on how limited the GOP losses were, understanding what a determined minority can do IF it wants to make this President's uncomfortable, unhappy, and force him to question why he's putting up with all of the grief?

But, let's root for harmony and bipartisan success, since we still have Special Counsel Mueller's report to be released..

Bill Maloni said...

The following statement was issued by Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Cal.) today.

Waters Statement on the 2018 Midterm Election Results

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Committee on Financial Services, issued the following statement in response to the 2018 midterm election results, which will give Democrats the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives next Congress:
“With a Democratic majority in the House, and a mandate from the American public, the Financial Services Committee will get to work making sure the financial system is fair for all Americans. As the senior Democrat on the Financial Services Committee, I would be honored to lead the Committee next year with the support of my Democratic colleagues.

“If I am selected by my colleagues to serve as Chair of the Committee, I will prioritize protecting consumers and investors from abusive financial practices, making sure that there are strong safeguards in place to prevent another financial crisis, expanding and supporting affordable housing opportunities and tackling the homelessness crisis, encouraging responsible innovation in financial technology, promoting diversity and inclusion in the financial services sector, and ensuring that hardworking Americans and small businesses have fair access to the financial system and opportunities to thrive.

“For the last two years, Republicans in Congress have served as accomplices to Trump and have completely neglected Congress’ oversight responsibilities, enabling corruption and destructive policies to run rampant. It is critical that we bring accountability to the Trump Administration and the regulatory agencies under the Committee's jurisdiction. That includes ensuring that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau can be allowed to resume its essential role of protecting consumers from harmful practices without interference from the Trump Administration.

“I believe in hearing a range of views on the issues facing the Committee, which are complex and consequential for all Americans. I will continue to maintain an open door policy, to hear the perspectives and concerns of all stakeholders, including representatives of the financial services industry, as well as groups that represent America’s consumers and investors. And, I will continue to work both with my Democratic colleagues and my colleagues across the aisle on commonsense solutions that benefit hardworking Americans and strengthen our economy.”

Anonymous said...


Bill Maloni said...

Anon--Truth, I don't know what "LOL" stands for, i.e. "Lot of love, lots of luck, or Lots of laughs?"

Anonymous said...

All the above to anyone who puts hope into an ignorant M.W. With all the intelligent in our country, this is what the DNC brings forward to represent them. So yes, LoL.

Bill Maloni said...

I won't lecture you, but will remidn you whether you and I liek it or not, this is the way democracy and the Congress works.

She's been elected and re-elected since the early 1990's by her neighbors and community--not the DNC (or RNC, with the previous GOP chairs). Because of her seniority she likely is heading to the chairmanship.

She is no better (save on GSE issues, I think) or worse than those spineless R's who were in charge of those House committees for the past 8 years and never offered a crticial peep about the POTUS..

I suspect you're upset because some of them are going to make DJT's life unhappy as his hysterical threatening outburst yesterday suggests and warrants.

Anonymous said...

I am not upset. It’s actually good for the country. Maybe force some bipartisan policy. Yes, we have no control if an area of the country elects a corrupt, hate filled, bigot that doesn’t even live in the district she represents. To think this is our hope for GSE resolve is not very comforting.
To follow up again, BHO and DNC added $10 Trillion to the deficit. You continually fail to remember that. The spineless Republicans are no worse then the Party that created the NWS and robbed shareholders for eight years.
Finally, again, I am not upset. It’s rather humorous. My guess is this is more of a sport irritating the Left. One thing for certain, unlike most spineless Republicans, he fights back. And enjoyable to watch and read in Blogs like this one.

Bill Maloni said...

You are drinking too much fo the Kool-aid my friend.

I picked up these three recent(middle of the road) articles about current and future budgets. Trump is on a fiscal crime streek (my phrase not any of their's); read them all and then come back and tell me how virtuous he and his budgets are??

DJT's budgets are red-ink filled and scheduled to produce more, just based on his tax cuts alone--which deprive the Treasury of revenue--and that's before you get into his additional spending demands (all of which is DEFICIT SPENDING because the revenues to cover them are not there).

The Balance

USA Today


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