Ed
DeMarco’s Crappy Speech
And Other
Noteworthy Matters
GSE Earnings,
a Revenue Surprise?
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Concentrate a second on that $16 Billion news item from Inside Mortgage Finance this past week.
Freddie and Fannie will announced 3Q
earnings in early November (reportedly on Nov. 6 and Nov. 7, respectively), but
this past quarter’s earnings—all of
which minus capital will be swept directly to the Treasury’s general fund (a
process now subject to multiple shareholder lawsuits)—could get a major boost
from the above mentioned buyback activity, as well additional revenue from the
just reached JP and BofA settlements ($2.74B Freddie, $1.26B Fannie), depending
on when it’s booked.
Those numbers would be major gravy
on top of existing grand expectations of what their normal business operations will generate.
And still, you have the possibility
of Freddie’s earnings jacked up, super-sized, through a payment to Treasury
payment based on its Deferred Tax Assets (DTA), which represent about $30
Billion.
Fannie used their DTA earlier this
year and sent $50 Billion to Uncle Sam,
supplementing an additional $9 Billion in 2Q earnings.
For me, the exact earnings are less
significant than the fact that both
entities will report very positive numbers and the two will move ever so
much closer to “repaying the Treasury” the $186 Billion the taxpayers infused
in the companies in 2008.
I know, the principal can’t be
repaid, blah, blah, blah.
However, don’t discount the powerful
political and rhetorical point that will be made when F&F give back to the Treasury more than they “borrowed.”
That threshold will be crossed with
fourth quarter’s earnings in March of 2014, or sooner if Freddie uses some/all
of its DTA in 3Q.
“Why is it important that public officials
understand history, Professor Maloni?”
Because, “Grasshopper” (defined as current
congressional types, the media, some regulators and those friends who accuse me
of dwelling on the past), it is the path that leads us to the present and the
future.
If you study a history of a topic/nation/political movement.. You can understand the present better.... and perhaps deal with any crisis that may arise in the present..
Sadly few people seem to look very far back in History in regards to current events.
If you study a history of a topic/nation/political movement.. You can understand the present better.... and perhaps deal with any crisis that may arise in the present..
Sadly few people seem to look very far back in History in regards to current events.
DeMarco’s Outrageous Anniversary Comments
Laying out that fabricated exchange occurred
to me after reading Ed DeMarco’s Zillow
conference remarks, on the five year anniversary of Hank Paulson’s takeover of Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac. (Ed, have you
noticed that because of Hank, Treasury is being sued for billions by 10
different plaintiffs with the cases being managed by some of the nation’s best
and brightest lawyers?)
Here’s are Director DeMarco's remarks.
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25634/ZillowspeechFinal102413.pdf
Generally, I’ve been positive on DeMarco,
questioning only a few of his decisions, when I believed he leaned too heavily toward
ideology and not “conserving enterprise assets,” which is part of his job.
But his comments last week exceedingly rubbed
me the wrong way.
He lauded his agency’s work, naturally, but
so much that it makes you wonder why he deigns allowing 8,000 or so F&F
employees to come to work each day. (The answer is to responsibly manage the
nation’s crucial secondary mortgage market and send billions to the US
Treasury.)
His statement smelled of fear. He kept
reminding his audience that the Fannie/Freddie business model failed, is dead,
and can’t ever work (all the while, I assume, looking over his shoulder at the
growing number of commentators disagreeing with him), as if repeating it enough
times would make it true and in a wonderful “sleight of hand/speech” trick,
slid over the fact that the legislation which put F&F into conservatorship
and created FHFA merely “addressed some shortcomings” in F&F oversight.
Have You Forgotten So Soon, Ed?
Holy Batpoop, Mr. Acting Director!
OFHEO, the agency--filled with hacks and
incompetents—five years previous gave birth to the problems which they first
couldn’t identify and then couldn’t solve, forcing Congress to do away with the
outfit, but kept most of the personnel—including you--in place with a new name,
almost like the federal witness protection program.
C’mon Ed, you’ve nailed other things, how
could you miss this one? You were there, at a high OFHEO level for a few years
before the 2008 conservatorship legislation?
Working through DeMarco’s speech was like reading
the three novels of Berlin Noire and encountering innumerable World War II German
citizens who claimed they never knew a Nazi.
Let me draw a straight line from F&F post-1992
regulator, The Office of Financial Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), to the
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the current one begat in 2008 with many
of the same OFHEO folks in senior posts (including Mr. DeMarco).
(It bears noting, too, that DeMarco only is “acting” director of
FHFA, while President Obama tries mightily to replace him.)
OFHEO’s Fingerprints On the Murder Weapon!
Ed’s paean to FHFA on its fifth anniversary
belies the principal role his predecessor agency, through malfeasance and
misfeasance, played in setting the table for Fannie’s financial demise (and Freddie’s
too, because it always mirrored Fannie) when both chose to swim in Alt A (no
doc mortgages) and Private Label Subprime (PLS) purgatory.
It started in 2004 (DeMarco was not on staff
then) when OFHEO in a flight of incompetence and political paroxysm issued a
report suggesting that Fannie’s top officials, Chairman Frank Raines, CFO Tim
Howard, and Comptroller Leanne Spence, committed “securities fraud” in willfully
failing to implement a new accounting rule created by the Financial Accounting
Standards Board (FASB) requiring financial institutions to mark to market mortgage
backed securities eligible for sale.
When a principle-challenged, politically
supine SEC, headed by another George W. Bush toadie, weighed in and agreed with
OFHEO, the die was cast and all three were forced from Fannie.
This allegation, which was a frustrated civil
servants “so’s your Momma” whack at a corporation which OFHEO officials felt failed
to kowtow.
Federal Judge Richard Leon, in 2012, finally quashed
all three charges, which subsequently had manifested themselves in a
shareholders lawsuit against the officials, but the lasting institutional and
personal damage was done.
Successor officials—significantly deviating
from Fannie’s traditional approach to mortgage financing--chose to respond to 2005
market share and revenue losses, like a gambler putting everything on red, and
plunged into the subprime securities pool (pun intended), acquiring everything
they could, with the inevitable losses taking down the company.
The world needs reminded while people inside
Fannie advised the new Chairman not to buy the useless bonds, OFHEO missed
identifying the evils of subprime and stayed silent until the horrible
investment was widely recognized.
Very few people who knew the business and the
individuals believe that Frank Raines and Tim Howard would have led the company
down that same primrose path, made those Alt A and PLS mistakes, and bet the
ranch on poorly underwritten, rating inflated, worthless mortgage bonds. But, they
never had the chance to exercise their judgment and reject that path, since
they were hounded from their jobs in a GOP witch hunt.
If some people have trouble reading between
my lines…..
…Let me make be more clear.
I believe had OFHEO and the Bush team not forced out Raines,
Howard, and Spencer with a politically malicious set of allegations—later to be
shown false—the company and the nation’s financial history would have been dramatically
altered.
Fannie Mae with Raines and Howard at the top never would have
bought the Alt A and PLS their successors did; shareholders would have quieted
down, there would have gotten happy with reasonable not huge earnings, and
there would have been no need for any Fannie Mae taxpayer financial relief. (I
am not including Freddie in that because I wasn’t there and don’t know what
those officials would have done, but I believe they would have followed
Fannie’s lead.)
Thank you Mr. DeMarco’s predecessors--who
created a position for Mr. DeMarco and his colleagues, via their bureaucratic
incompetence, screw ups, and ego—for giving him
unsurpassed regulatory power over the two largest and perhaps the
nation’s greatest generators of affordable mortgage credit.
The only things which have grown faster than
F&F’s earnings in the last two year earnings is the FHFA IG’s staff demands—which
oversees the agency, not the two companies—and the core agency workforce.
Ed, you could have done a better job than the
“look at what good boys/girls we are at FHFA” speech on the fifth anniversary
of the Fannie/Freddie bushwhacking.
You more or less crapped on the “enterprises”
(as you so politely announced you call them) and attributed their recent
earnings success to tax tricks.
But buddy, you wouldn’t be shaking in your
boots if you weren’t a wee bit frightened about their positive financial future,
which no matter what you do, will be dictated by a Congress, which might not
carry your bias.
Speaking of which……
The Howard Book
I was told Tim Howard’s soon to be released “The Mortgage Wars” was discussed in the
coffee and break times at the two major housing reform conferences held in DC
this past week and picked up by others.
The tome will discuss a lot of the “who
struck John” in the “OFHEO-Fannie Mae disputes,” much of the latter owing from
an amazing degree of agency insecurity (which I think flowed directly from
their leaders, who most people acknowledged were in over their heads).
It will not only open eyes but open minds and
immeasurably add to the GSE debate Congress is having and which will grow in
coming months.
For years, the flacks and log rollers at
OFHEO still were pronouncing the “t” in “mortgage.”
They had trouble regulating and required the
goodwill, physical and intellectual support of the two companies they were
supposed to oversee, but as befuddled as OFHEO was, it sure could and did cause
trouble.
Maybe DeMarco, before he reaches his dotage,
will realize that. Or now, he could opt to read Judge Leon’s voluminous hearing
records and minutely examine Leon’s court decisions, when his Honor threw out
of his court the laughable but destructive “securities fraud” charges—which
started as an “OFHEO report.”
Or, Mr. D could take an easy way out and just
consume the following excellent short hand reviews of the OFHEO follies, written
months ago by old friend David Fiderer. They appear here, again, for those
who initially may have missed his dazzling work.
As I noted in last week’s blog comments
section to a questioner, Howard says he has a Jan. 6 (?), 2014, event at DC’s Politics
and Prose book store, on upper Connecticut Avenue, NW; pre-orders (at a
nice discount) are available on Amazon, for those like me who value saving a
buck.
AEI
Apostasy?
From
Issac Boltansky’s Compass Point.
Opinion Piece Calls For Lawmakers to Let GSEs Live. In an opinion piece being sent around D.C. this morning, former undersecretary of state James Glassman is arguing against the liquidation of the GSEs. As we have stated previously, our sense is that the conversation in D.C. appears to be shifting slightly toward support of simply re-branding the GSEs as we know them. There is a meaningful concern among some policymakers that liquidating the GSEs may create an unsustainable vacuum without a clear and capable replacement in place (i.e. PMI, banks, PLS investors). (Isaac Boltansky |202-534-1396| iboltansky@compasspointllc.com)
Jim Glassman, one time publisher of Roll Call the Capitol
Hill newspaper, and now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) could
lose his starboard side communications rights with his blasphemous Bloomberg article last week, calling
for reviving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to serve the nation. (Linked at the end of this segment.)
Glassman never was a Fannie-fan at Roll Call and while I
welcome his comments, I was most worried that Glassman’s heresy—especially if it
caught fire and attracted GOP acolytes-- might make things uncomfortable for
Peter Wallison and Ed Pinto, AEI’s resident Fannie/Freddie belligerents, to
whom I immediately took my concerns.
PW did assure me in an email that the AEI welcomes all
kinds of wayward thinkers (my word, not his) and it has room in its big tent
for Brother Glassman.
Maloni,
10-27-2013
…