Monday, February 27, 2017

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) was a prominent Protestant pastor who emerged as an outspoken public foe of Adolf Hitler and spent the last seven years of Nazi rule in concentration camps.

Benjamin Franklin: “We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”

Reviewing the Past GSE/Political Week

GSE Developments

I still am quite PO’d at last week’s Appeals Court opinion which sustained the Lamberth decision and remanded some lesser but still important questions. I hope the few remand requests supported by the judges will be met thoughtfully by Judge Lamberth or whomever.

But, I want—with no personal legal knowledge of what’s involved--plaintiffs (and their legal teams), simultaneously, to opt for a full Appeals Court review, i.e. “en banc,” and also a Supreme Court hearing, hoping the SCOTUS will take the case.

Plaintiffs have 45 days (so I am told by lawyer friends) to seek the “en banc” all judge court examination of the Millett-Ginsburg ruling.

To date, in several courts, the GSEs, their cases and lawyers already have been slaughtered as judicial sheep, so it’s time to shapeshift and continue the fight as wolves.

Better to go down as a predator rather than a lamb chop.

Again, I urge plaintiffs to go both routes—if that’s procedurally permissible—“en banc” review and a date with the Supreme Court. The talent exists among your/”our” lawyers to do both and plaintiffs’ resources should, too.

I am going to repeat myself because it figures into what most of us are thinking.

The Appeals Court decision was a major setback in more ways than one and we can’t pretend it wasn’t.

Judges Millett's and Ginsburg's ludicrous finding was a downer for the plaintiffs, and IMO slowed considerably any haste which Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin might have wanted to resolve quickly GSE matters—which aren’t going away.

But, with Mnuchin TV appearances after Tuesday’s court action, I sense WH movement on GSE matters got shoved “yugely” down the priority list and could be a 2018 or later event.

The Treasury Secretary’s references to speaking to sources on the Hill troubles me because no GOP committee leader, wants the GSEs resurrected…..quite the opposite.

Ergo, besides happy talk, I have no idea what the Treasury Secretary and those congressional leaders could agree on that’s positive re Fannie and Freddie.

My head and my heart tell me—unless Mnuchin does a surprising 180 degree turn and accelerates any remaining desire to act administratively--GSE matters will lose their place to other emerging other issues.

Again, I could be wrong. Secretary Mnuchin may surprise us; the GSE plaintiffs could seek a quick and successful “en banc” review; or Judge Margaret Sweeney could declare that she’s heard and seen enough defendant’s obstruction to decide on the legality for the 2012 Treasury “sweep,” which now has pushed more than $260 Billion into the Treasury’s General Fund.

Just to keep us centered, I’ll repeat why Fannie and Freddie can’t/shouldn’t be casually ignored.

--Housing is too important in our culture and our economy. The alternatives to Fannie and Freddie, as their adherents have learned, all suck and offer only greater big bank control and less consumer benefits. The proper blend of those desirable qualities are hallmarks of why the GSEs offer major benefits to the nation’s homebuyers, as well as the skein of mortgage professionals who rely on that process.

Nature and politics abhors a vacuum and the anti-GSE folks—especially with their congressional support--are better able to move into the space than us with their “let’s give it all to the banks” schemes.

Removing the handcuffs from Fannie and Freddie and moving toward a privately owned GSE utility is the correct move and also should produce economic and political bounty for the Trump Administration and the President who seems desperate for both not to mention public huzzahs.

--The Appeals Court decision and the underlying Lambert ruling, were horribly flawed and hopefully higher courts will see that, plus it’s a scary implication for all publicly owned businesses, if federal financial regulators can initiate and maintain brutal actions not subject to judicial review.

--There still are major court cases pending, most notably before Judge Margaret Sweeney in the court of Claims and the Jacobs-Hindes case in Delaware. Sweeney has been the most hospitable to plaintiff’s lawyers and has been treated most egregiously by the government’s legal team.

--We brag “the US is a nation of laws,” but GSE fans haven’t seen evidence of that in F&F cases to date. Lots of people who helped DJT become President Trump advocated for GSE resurrection, expecting the law to support them.

That should help at the margin, especially if/when his Treasury Secretary and Attorney General truly get involved.

But, in the GSE world, whenever things look the brightest, inevitably we get a visit from cartoonist Al Capp’s old friend, “Joe Btfsplk” who plays skunk at our GSE picnic and messes with/in our party punch.

(For you youngsters.)

Do you best to shoo Joe B. away!


Bye Administrative State and Hello What??
Joey Goebbels and “Goebbels” Bannon
Scary Parallels, No Matter How they Break

(The similarities concern me.)

Joseph Goebbels (1897-1945) was Adolph Hitler’s chief propagandist and even succeeded him as Chancellor, briefly, after Hitler and Eva Braun committed suicide; next day, Goebbels and spouse followed suit, taking their six children with them.

Goebbels was a major Hitler counsellor and thinker, shaping and driving the Fuhrer’s unbalanced behavior and anti-Semitic actions. He also enjoyed a reputation for cinematic expertise.

Steve Bannon, who seems to share Goebbels penchant for leather coats, was a very successful Wall Street guy, husband and father, independent movie producer, writer, former naval officer, major right wing voice at Breitbart News, and President Donald Trump’s most senior conservative thinker/strategist. Bannon also displays disdain, some might say hate, for minorities.

At last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) DC meeting, the nation heard Steve Bannon discuss his vision for the destabilization of America’s prevailing “Administrative State.” Like the POTUS,  Bannon’s aspirations were short on detail but his goal seemed clear.

(Now that he’s out of the official fascist closet with his personal (and to me, dangerous) ideology, black leathers and all, Mr. B now has earned my nickname of “Goebbels,” which I will attach to him evermore.)

I think it is ironic historically, that 74 years ago, in February, 1933, Adolph Hitler announced his foreign policy which was all about securing “living space” for his German master race and paced his rampage through Western Europe and Russia, killing millions and laying waste to nations, cultures, national borders, and dozens of ethnicities.

As per his CPAC performance and many of his previous activities, writing, and movies,  Goebbels Bannon is all about busting up US institutions with no idea what will follow, and apparently not worrying about the collateral damage to our democracy, since the goal is just the breakup. 

While Joey G was brutally anti-Jew, we know Bannon’s strong views on Mexican and Muslim immigrants and according to his ex-wife, Bannon didn’t want their twin daughters attending school with Jewish kids, claiming the Semites all were “whiny.”

I wonder if all Trump supporters believe in Goebbels Bannon’s dream of tearing down so many familiar societal walls in America, replacing them with what?

And if those hearty party followers don’t buy in, will they let anyone know?

I’m not ready to accept the GOP spin that most of those unhappy participants at congressional town hall meetings are not real constituents upset with the general weak-kneed behavior displayed by GOP Members of Congress and Senators.

The congressional lemming “follow the Republican leader over the cliff” performance is present. I guess one way to ignore those back home complaints is to pretend they are not real or somehow the agitation of “outsiders.”

But, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar and those criticisms just might represent legitimate voter outrage. We’ll know in two years when most MoC’s run for re-election.

However, as per Goebbels Bannon’s political prescription, it’s tough to hide the off key resumes of DoE’s Betsy DeVos, HUD’s Ben Carson, EPA’s Scott Pruitt, AG Jeff Sessions and Ag’s Rick Perry, Transportation’s Elaine Chao, etc. given their new careers. 

Each is a legitimate cabinet-level agency disrupter and implementer who fast could facilitate that Goebbels Bannon destruction process.

The Boss

This week, while continuing his attacks on the media, President Trump called for a huge military buildup and upgrading our nuclear arsenal to make sure we have more nukes than any other country. (I doubt that shakes up the North Korean leader who, likely just offed his brother, lots of other relatives and competitor close aides.)

Neither of those muscular POTUS campaign promises is objectionable on the surface, except I wonder where he is going to get the money? More deficit spending justified by he who promised to balance the budget, using the justification of what ….besides the need for the military industrial complex to general more revenue?

The Admin’s cash needs dovetail with the Steve Mnuchin unwise announcement, that tax reform will be the Admin’s major initiative this year.

Tax reform could produce simplicity, which would be nice, but not  grand revenue.

If there are 200 lobbyists armed and ready to kill the GSEs, there are 2000 or more registered lobbyists-- and hundreds more for the asking--equally armed and ready to kill, expand, distort, or preserve their paymasters’ various tax exclusions for which they’ve worked for years and years to get and keep.

Major tax reform is not a leisurely back nine at Mira Lago and any presumed disappearance of tax breaks—without replacement tax bennies--will be fought mightily including by many Republicans.

Or as Louisiana’s legendary Sen. Russell Long, historic tax legislation pass master, once opined, “The Senators all say, don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax the fellow behind the tree!”

There is a reason why our Tax Code is so snarled and tangled and it largely is about little addition here and amendment there, most were misidentified intentionally as revenue raisers, or revenue neutral, which add up to hundreds perhaps thousands of interests not paying their fair share of federal taxes necessary to do all of those things President DJT wants to do, build our defense forces, a Wall separating us from Mexican, a $Trillion for infrastructure spending, and reduce federal taxes for individuals and corporations alike.

DJT’s tax/budget numbers won’t/don’t add up, never have and never will. I fear the result may be the moneyed interests just tapping the US Treasury for their own balance sheets and share price increases, employing misleading 10 year revenue predictions calling any success “deficit neutral.”

(I’ll be curious to see next month what 10 year revenue number the first DJT Budget has for the GSEs.)

Psst. The future is unknowable and nobody accurately can project tax spending and revenue 10 years into the future. Official Washington never has and never will.

That doesn’t stop the OMB, CBO, and bunches of other three and four letter federal sources from doing it. But their revenue and spending prediction miss far more than hit. (Think about all of these weapons systems you read about and their spiraling upward costs?)

And, that’s a bipartisan comment. Democrats and Republicans both engage in that BS math.

President Trump could be the successful  exception but I don’t think tax reform—despite Sean Spicer’s and Kellyanne Conway’s cheerleading--is a near term political winner, just as I didn’t think  President Obama should have pursued “Obamacare” as his first major legislative initiative.

Obama used up a lot of political capital, didn’t sell it well, got only Democrat votes, and didn’t root it in enough of a political foundation to keep it protected from GOP attacks and now, likely, major legislative changes. (Although some of the congressional town hall meetings maybe making the majority congressional think twice about that partisan legislative surgery.)

My blog advice then to President Obama and now to President Trump, is first seek a major national infrastructure effort. Go for smart projects which are needed and not substitutes for already planned private spending.

That’s low hanging political fruit.

Trump could get bipartisan support in every congressional district where municipal repair is necessary, allow the public (voters) to see new bricks and mortar rising before their eyes, produce some of the jobs DJT seeks, and bank some political support which he can use down the road for your other priorities (like the GSEs???).

Maloni, 2-27-2017

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Don’t Despair; Hope for GSE Friends

Today’s rushed and out of sequence blog is dedicated to all of those anxious and unhappy F&F investors—which initially included yours truly—smacked in the chops by the Appeals Court decision and Judge Ginsburg's apparent chameleon routine, changing from an intellectually GSE friend to foe—if any jurist could be labeled as such based on his hearing comments and questions.

Apparently, Ginsburg stepped to the dark side and—as I joked with a notable conservative GSE critic—Fannie friends have video and audio of someone who looks like Ginsburg “seeking asylum at the AEI headquarters and later GMU’s Mercatus Center mumbling that he wanted to immigrate to Russia!”

No truth to the rumor Judge Ginsburg has retained Mike Flynn and Paul Manafort to manage his safe transit “over there.”

Today, why should pro GSE folks and allies feel at any optimism?

Reason #1

First, housing can't be ignored and driven by available and well-priced mortgage financing—especially when it’s inclusive of all eligible borrowers—powers something like 20% of our national GNP.

That’s still what Fannie and Freddie do and better than all others, no matter what the NAR/MBA think.

People still will want homes, but the process could be more efficient, cheaper, and timely if some of the systemic shackles were removed.

So, it’s crucial for the United States to have builders, Realtors, lenders, borrowers on the same page and pooling their efforts to satisfy the business and social needs of everyone in that homeownership chain. It also drives the carpentry, painting, roofing, electrical, home furnishings, landscaping, housing emoluments dependent industries which employ tons of Americans and tons more when times are flush. That spells JOBS.

The Trump Administration likely understands that it doesn’t have to do very much to activate that pent up housing demand also triggering the jobs it promised during the campaign.

Reviving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—which it has the executive authority to do—to quickly produce a “Wham, Bam, thank you President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin” financial and economic boost, that also would be a major nod for President DJT’s “forgotten people” if they take some wraps off the GSEs.

Reason #2

The Appeals Court decision was “&^%#@* up!” May sound like a loser’s lament, but you don’t have to be a lawyer to see it.

(Read Judge Brown’s minority views to see why the above statement is accurate.)$file/14-5243-1662090.pdf

It was if the two majority judges (Millet and Ginsburg) made up their minds that the GSEs were the “Devil” (see Maloni’s inside the beltway “GSE Shit Wall” beliefs), and then looked for arguments to support that.

As my friend and superb lawyer Gwenn Hibbs pointed out, this decision had far reaching implications beyond the GSES and should make any investor think about buying into any financial services company if federal financial regulators truly have the latitude Lamberth and the Appeals court gave them to injure shareholders and take actions without any judicial review.

Ironically, President Trump’s immigration travel bans gets initially rejected by federal courts, but the Treasury/FHFA can do whatever it wants to Fannie and Freddie without any judicial review suggested/screamed the Appeals Court yesterday.

I suspect plaintiffs will seek a Supreme Court review unless there is an agreement between the Administration and investors within the next few weeks.

Reason #3

The remaining court cases, including the major one in Judge Margaret Sweeney’s Court of Claims, plus a few lesser ones, now are clearly in the hands of Trump executives in Treasury and the Department of Justice.

Judge Sweeney is going to rule on the 2012 Treasury “sweep,” and she potentially also holds Fannie’s and Freddie’s future in her judicial hands.

There are 11,000 orphan documents in Sweeney’s court still are seeking a “Daddy.” Will those Papas be Jack Lew/Eric Holder or Steve Mnuchin/Jeff Sessions?

Again, if the Trump Administration wants to saddle itself with Obama errors and mistakes, all it has to do is emulate the BHO stance on these matters and stonewall and obstruct.
If it doesn’t, it should distinguish itself and do something different.

Reason #4

Obviously related—and while I don’t know exactly who is friends with whom or who owns what--but if all of the rumors about major GSE investors having ties to DJT, Steve Mnuchin, John Paulson, Gary Cohn, Carl Icahn, etc. are accurate, I would think that this Administration would try mightily to do well for the American people--and good for their friends--by carrying through on Mnuchin’s desire to get the GSEs out of the government and back into private control, capitalized appropriately.

The well-schooled on mortgage finance and securities issues Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says he wants to get the GSEs out of government management and into private ownership doing what they have done best---and, time for a commercial--arguably better than all the rest of the big banks and amalgamated Frankenstein parts their opponents would wish in the GSEs place.

Give the GSE stallion its lead Mr. President and ride it to economic, social, and political success.

Yippee Kiyay, Mr. President, ride that horse!!!

Maloni, 2-22-2017

Monday, February 20, 2017

Happy Presidents' Day 2017

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) was a prominent Protestant pastor who emerged as an outspoken public foe of Adolf Hitler and spent the last seven years of Nazi rule in concentration camps.

Benjamin Franklin: “We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”

Good/Bad News 4Q GSE Earnings

I told you they would be healthy and very good (but likely not impact the stock price—which swings to different music), with Freddie earning $4.8 Billion in 4Q16, more than the $2.2 Billion it earned a year ago in the same period. Freddie Mac will send $4.5 Billion of that to the Treasury’s General Fund (unless someone in the new Admin holds up that dividend scheduled for March). 

Here’s Freddie’s Thursday earnings release.

Fannie, which announced numbers a day later, topped Freddie and will send $5.5 Billion to Treasury next month, with the same pregnant caveat noted above.

Here’s Fannie’s Friday earnings release.

But the healthy totals beg the question I posed in last week’s blog and now other people are raising, given Steve Mnuchin’s statements.

Money, money, money, money…MON-AY

The Trump Administration, too, will need revenue and the GSE’s contributions ($10 Billion this quarter!) could look very appetizing to their OMB numbers crunchers (as they did to Obama’s).

Secretary Mnuchin’s in-the-works plan to release Fannie and Freddie from government control and return them in some substantive way to market operations and private ownership involves a lot more than ending the current lawsuits Treasury faces and working on a possible settlement (which likely takes money from the Treasury’s General Fund, near term).

One huge way to justify fully operational GSEs--which some quant should be able to monetize--is to “socialize the costs” of a GSE resurrection to counterbalance those who will claim breathing life into the GSEs will cost the taxpayers.

Calculate what a significantly unleashed Fannie and Freddie could mean in mortgage system operational improvements; increased consumer mortgage activity; greater federal tax revenues for GSEs, lenders and market participants; major increases in industry related jobs, which greater GSE activity generates; and the benefits of establishing a safer, sounder and more equitable mortgage finance model. (See Urban Institute’s latest report on disappearing Black homeownership opportunities.)

Added to these financial bennies are the major political socio-economic gains for the “forgotten man” (Trump campaign phrase) who DJT campaigned saying he would help and on whom I believe the Obama Admin’s GSE antics turned its back.

Those ignored  folks generally won’t see their super market costs go down when DJT threatens to build the Wall or when he argues with the media or Congress over Washington leaks or Russian his contacts. But making it easier for this politically important demographic group to buy a first house or refinance their current house, positively, would hit home (pun intended).

(With the possibility that GSE related expense could diminish the Treasury’s General Fund, I guess it’s a good thing DJT is bringing onboard all of these additional “Generals.” Groan! Sorry, couldn’t pass it up.)

Documents, Documents Everywhere…

Now that the courts have ordered the federal government to make more documents available to GSE plaintiffs’ lawyers--and some showing some truly sketchy actions by Obama White House/Treasury officials--the cases against the government look stronger and stronger.

There are around 11,000 government documents which still could be revealed, but how many would be needed for the Trump Administration to see they want to stay far away from this reeking legal and political albatross?

Hopefully, it wouldn’t take this Treasury and this DoJ much time to realize matching any of the obfuscating Obama actions makes this case theirs.

I also hope the White House and Sweeney and Appeals Courts aren’t engaging in a legal/procedural “Alphonso and Gaston,” i.e. "you go first, no you go first” choreography.


Nit-picking, a few weeks ago, I offered up my personal perspective of how many senior government, congressional, and media officials, charged with knowing mortgage finance history and issues, just don’t, but continue to disregard facts or utter phrases they don't understand.

I was struck this past week, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified before Senate Banking Committee Chairman and its Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) kept claiming Fannie and Freddie were in “receivership.”

Uh, no Chairman Mike, “conservatorship,” is not “receivership.” There is a huge difference as you, a Brigham Young undergrad with a Harvard law degree, should know or your senior staff should have told you.

Yellen did Crapo a grand favor by ignoring his mistake, not correcting and embarrassing him.

Senator Crapo, here’s a reminder for you and your SBC staff.

Source: Value Plays, 2014 (An unattributed quote, the author of which I would like to give credit but can’t since I don’t know she or he!) discussing the difference between receivership and conservatorship.

The (Congress) absolutely could have put the Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Me (OTCBB: FNMA) and Freddie Mac / Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp (OTCBB: FMCC)’s into receivership and liquidated them. They could have done it. The problem is they DIDN’T do it. They put them into conservatorship and by doing so by law have an obligation “to preserve the value of the assets for stakeholders”. What they then did with the 3rd Amendment is to begin to perform a de facto receivership on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s by slowly liquidating them by transferring their wealth to the Treasury. That is a “no-no”.
Receivership and Conservatorship are two VERY different things. There are very different requirements of the Conservator and the Receiver. A receiver receives the assets to dispose of them, the conservator becomes a steward of the assets to preserve them. The two are not remotely related. What the gov’t did with the 3rd Amendment is turn a conservatorship into a receivership. They do not have the right to do that. THAT is that these lawsuits are about.
Mark Calabria (memories, memories)
Some GSE-fan expressed concern when VP Mike Pence named CATO denizen Mark Calabria’s his new economist.

I won’t pretend to know what Calabria’s latest GSE views are, but some of you might remember this useful paper (available on the always reliable “GSE links”) that he co-authored two years ago.

Humbling (but great)  GSE news

Tim Howard told me he received 10,000 blog hits last week.


The POTUS, Flynn, Etc.

What I don’t understand is why the President waited two and a half weeks to fire Mike Flynn (I mean ask for his resignation), when DJT knew Flynn had talked with the Russians on matters that weren’t Flynn’s responsibility.

To me, that is the major Flynn issue, with lying and changing his story to VP Pence and others, a secondary violation.

But, could Flynn—at DJT’s request-- have been talking to the Russians months ago, possibly discussing removal of the US economic sanctions in return for Putin’s help defeating Hillary Clinton?

Man, if I was Chairman of the House Oversight CommitteeJason Chaffetz (R-Utah), I would be all over that one like flies on Russian stink, like an alky on booze, a stallion on mares, or as he was on HRC on Benghazi!  

You get the picture.

I’ll yell, again, “Republicans in Congress, it’s the Russians.” Wake up, these are the guys--with cause-- you’ve hated for most of the past 70 years”

Their government’s intent hasn’t changed much.

When will it click with the GOP congressional leadership and rank and file?  Do all of your constituents trust the Russians and believe they only have goodwill in their hearts for their new orange-haired American friend in the White House?

So, what are you going to do about it?

This isn’t a new partisan theme for me, I badgered President Obama, John Kerry, and other Democrats about it often.

Russian leaders have no interest in US success, its citizens, or its welfare, except what they can literally steal from it, squeeze out of it through their criminal behavior, or deliver pain and disruption to our national and international aspirations—and, to be very fair, all of that was Russian SOP long before Donald Trump was elected President last November.

So now Putin sends a spy ship to the waters off Connecticut, deploys a new land based cruise missile likely in a treaty violation, welcomes an Iranian General to Moscow—on whose hands we say there is “US military blood”—and whose visits there are forbidden by UN sanctions, and Russia continues to harass and dangerously buzz our airplanes and ships.

How will our new President—who chided Barack Obama over being too lenient/weak with our nation’s enemies—treat these Russian provocations??

If the President does nothing, he adds to the rumors that the Russians have damning (“blackmailing”?) material on Trump, Flynn and “others” in the Trump White House and inner circle.


Please don’t snicker and discount the old spy craft meme, “We have dirty pictures of you,” which Russian operatives regular used to blackmail visiting US diplomats, corporate executives or their employees, tourists, and western media methodically and premeditatedly caught by Russian security services on camera dallying with their Russian-supplied lovers.

The practice is called a “honey pot” trap.

What is Putin Holding Over Whom??

I think Putin and his thugs believe, they now have White House “hollow man,” who they can buy off with lies, intimidating threats, and possibly sugar, i.e.  green light emoluments for Trump Inc. investments in Mother Russia hotels, golf courses, ski resorts, etc. (“Quick, send Donny Jr. and/or Eric scampering to Russia, with a full Secret Service contingent, again, to conduct family business and spend taxpayers’ dollars, as Eric did recently in Uruguay!”)

That’s one Putin/Russian Mother I wish this Congress/White House would plow under and bury!!

To support President Trump, as well as the United States, I urge President Trump to give a speech in which he communicates with the American public/voters explaining what his presidential Russian aspirations are and how he hopes to achieve them.

That might clarify and mute some of the ugly things happening around him and being suggested about him and his Administration.

Please, just trust the American people, Mr. President, and share.

Please read Frida Ghitis….

…and Maureen Dowd

Maloni, 2-20-2017