A few GSE voices
My longtime friendly
adversary Peter Wallison—with whom I greatly disagree but don’t dislike—took to
the pages of the Wall Street Journal a few days ago to express
his fear of a “rogue” US Treasury somehow backing plans to keep Fannie and
Freddie alive as shareholder own entities (either corporations or utilities),
despite the fact that he, his AEI colleagues, banking industry and media
allies, and congressional Republicans, have been opposing that possibility for
the past generation.
Let’s root for his
fears.
Most people will
remember that PW’s core predicate was/is Fannie Mae bought and guaranteed only
low quality subprime loans in the 1990’s ultimately causing the nation’s 2008
financial Armageddon.
Wallison relied on the “research”
of Ed Pinto, who briefly worked at Fannie and then later joined Wallison at
the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).
Ed’s early mistake, from
which his work never recovered, was applying silly, some would say contaminated analyses to assail his
former GSE employer, using his own exclusive definition of “subprime
mortgages” that nobody else in the mortgage finance world agreed was
accurate, except Ed and his sponsor Peter.
Peter, who knew
better--insisted on blaming the GSEs for the 2008 financial meltdown, refusing
to acknowledge the pre-2008 hugely contributing damage caused by the major
commercial banks and investment banks, when, foolishly, they tried cloning the
GSE’s business model, but forgot to adopt the GSE quality controls and superior
underwriting standards.
In 2007-2008, the big
banks created $2.7 Trillion in poorly constructed mortgage backed securities
with low quality mortgage loans--used falsely inflated ratings—and sold most of
those crappy bonds throughout the world, making the US domestic real estate
softening an international problem.
Those private label
securities (PLS)—bank-created outside the GSE
systems--bled red ink in record frequency and velocity.
The ugly fact for Peter
and Ed was that Fannie’s books of business throughout the 1990’s and into the
next century were the best of any national lender/guarantor,
with infinitesimal default rates.
Peter was a member of
the President Obama’s Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (and
a dissenter to its final report) and Don Quixote-like tried to have the
Commission staff embrace the Pinto work, which the Commission staff rejected as
having no merit.
That did not stop PW or
the Washington anti-GSE cabal from repeating that meme for years, through
today.
Since his work still is
being saluted by some, it still needs rebutted.
After reading his WSJ article, I told Peter that —while I loved to
think he was accurate—I didn’t believe he had a lot to fear, certainly near
term.
I don’t think there is
yet a final Administration or Phillips or Mnuchin plan for the disposition of
the GSEs and Treasury won’t embrace one until they have nothing on their agenda
more important politically. Then Treasury will do what most works for President
Trump regarding GSEs.
And to put an
exclamation point on my opinion of Wallison’s and Pinto’s work, the Federal
Deposit insurance Corporation (FDIC) this week published it history
of the 2008 financial debacle and sustained much of what Fannie and
Freddie advocates and Peter’s critics have been saying, pointing causal fingers
at the big banks and investment banks PLS machinations, not the GSEs.
And some other GSE
voices
In addition to Peter
Wallison, some other voices sound worried the GSE train might pass by their
stops, leaving them stuck in their seats like poor “Charlie on the MTA” (Kingston
Trio, 1959, kids look it up…..and shouldn’t someone better get them Milken boys
a sandwich!)
The Mortgage
Bankers Association, with its President David Stevens having announced his
retirement for this September (or thereabouts) insisted Congress needs to act
on GSE reform first thing when it returns for duty.
I guess David thinks
F&F have a higher national importance before Congress considers a US
budget, immigration/DACA issues, the Wall, infrastructure, or any
other governmental priority, which, frankly, outshines “GSE reform,” since
right this minute--which is the time frame on which Congress focuses--there
is no real Fannie and Freddie operational problem.
Qualifying mortgage
seekers, with decent credit and the down payment, can go to most any lender and
get a Fannie or Freddie mortgage, i.e. a loan the GSEs will securitize.
David also increased his
proboscis length when he declared in a later interview, the GSE legislation he
hopes comes from Congress this year “will do no harm to Fannie and
Freddie” (gag, yak, barf!). Really David, really??
Joining Mr. Stevens, who
just may be angling for Congress to answer his pleas before he has to step down
and abandon his quixotic “kill the GSEs” odyssey, is the Milken
Institute.
That’s the same Milken
Institute, which recently employed and paid the salary of Michael Bright now
firmly ensconced at Ginnie Mae.
Michael (and former FHFA
chief Ed DeMarco) desperately want Ginnie Mae--the Government National
Mortgage Association--to once again be the successor to Fannie Mae, as it
became when Fannie was kicked out of the government into the private sector in
1970.
However, Bright wants
Ginnie to inherit all of the GSE non-government insured or conventional
mortgage financing as per legislation he’s drafted for Senate
Republicans.
Damn them details.
Mike and DeMarco
ignore-- or hope congressional R’s doesn’t know--that Ginnie is a tiny full-fledged federal agency with no
substantive/qualitative back office or senior analytic staff capable of
underwriting, creating, and managing hundreds of billions of dollars in
conventional mortgage backed securities and are five or more years away from
being able to achieve that, if indeed Congress wants that mess. (Details,
details, huh Mike and Ed?)
A check of the records
will show, I think, today Ginnie still contracts with Freddie Mac to do some/much
of its work. (Worth noting, that when it was created in 1970, from
Fannie Mae’s federal government mission of securitizing FHA and VA mortgages
only, Fannie continued to do all of Ginnie’s back office work until the late
1980’s.)
Nonetheless, the Milken
Institute tabbed “four experts,” Michael A.
Stegman, Phillip Swagel, Theodore W. Tozer, and Milken’s Erich Kaplan to
encourage Congress to get on the case and hurry and euthanize Fannie and
Freddie. The quartet’s work on a legislative future only looked at two
statutory options (hey guys, how about examining just a slight
variation of the GSE status quo or are they too viable?) the MBA
proffered plan--which GSE rumor has it was written by Wells Fargo Bank)--and,
surprise, surprise, the Mike Bright Milken approach.
Could
any of this expressed concern (Wallison, Stevens, Milken) screen a turning of
the GOP’s political fortunes and possible D majorities in the Senate or House
after this year’s mid-term elections?
GSE value reading. While the Washington policy world
no-nothings--Tim Howard, MrF, G. Buckman, and other smart people to the
contrary—get rapturous over GSE risk-sharing securities (which don’t
transfer any risk just juicy dividends), here’s another view.
Wallison
redux
*(On Friday,1-26) when
this blog was being drafted, Inside Mortgage Finance reported that friend Peter Wallison could be Trump-named to succeed Mel
Watt when the latter concludes his tenure at the Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA). If that happens, I’ll polish my resume, certain that
Peter would want my sage like advice to assist him. Grumble, grumble, he’ll
probably hire Eddie first.)
Reading the above caused
GSE investigator/author David Fiderer to inquire, “Does this now mean Bernie Madoff can get
named to head the Securities and Exchange Commission?”
Stay tuned fans!
President Donald J.
Trump
I don’t know if I was
too hard on the President in my last blog, “Stormy, etc.” but
as I told somebody in an email, “Shame on any of us who fail to speak up when
we see behavior or events which violate our sense of community, civility,
propriety, morality, or principle.
So many of DJT’s first
year presidential actions crossed those lines for me that I can’t always keep
quiet. Don’t invite me to your cocktail party unless you want to hear the same
riffs.
But in fairness--for blog consumers--I will
try just to focus on
what’s observable to them and hope that readers who don’t agree with me,
initially, might see my side, after reading my proofs or explanations.
Robert Mueller’s
Investigation
(Before I add my two
cents worth about the Special Counsel’s work--for those who think I am just an
angry Democrat attacking Republicans wherever I find them--I’d like to offer
what for me and the nation would be a wicked good GOP presidential
ticket in 2020…..Robert Mueller and Ohio Governor John Kasich, two
truth-tellers and honest guys; wouldn’t they be refreshing??)
********************************************************************************
Against a backdrop of bipartisan congressional and media outrage at the possibility that a foreign
nation and historic pest had tampered with 2016 presidential election, the Trump
Administration reluctantly responded and took action.
It’s crucial for people
to remember that the Robert Mueller inquiry—which came about after Trump’s AG
Jeff Sessions recused himself from investigating possible Russian interference, since Sessions was part of the Trump campaign
—began when DoJ Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein last May chose Bob
Mueller, former head of the FBI, as a Special Prosecutor to investigate Russian
collusion and related matters.
All those decisions were
made by Republican officials from the President down through
Justice, with Mueller himself having a sterling military, civic, and political
GOP record.
After ten months and—mostly
in the House--GOP Lilliputians wailing about unfair investigations, foot
dragging, partisan complaints, conducting guerrilla warfare, the Mueller effort, now, seems reduced to three lines of inquiry.
--Was there Russian interference in the Trump election?
--Was there possible significant international money laundering
through a variety of Trump or other business operations, about which DJT knew?
--And was there White House/Trump obstruction of justice actions,
involving various firings and presidential misstatements, i.e. lies from Trump
and his associates which could rise to impeachable offenses depending on the
objectives of the fabricators/dissemblers?
It’s public record that
Donald Trump and his family have lusted to do business in Russia and with
Russians, beyond selling Russian individuals expensive properties in Trump
Florida real estate holdings and other US locations.
The big Trump income
return, beyond Russians buying his tchotchkes, is the family’s hope
to begin major business development (ski resorts, health clubs, office
buildings) in the former Soviet Union, which has a history of the
government/political elite skimming a share of any investment and revenue from
businesses, no matter the owner.
When people consider
“money laundering,” think of what one of the Trump sons—was it “Uday” or
“Cousay” (I know, Don. Jr. and Eric, who just remind me of the out of
control Hussein brothers) –recently said when appearing on, surprise,
Fox News: “My dad only cares about one color, green.”
That was the kid’s
defense against calls that his father was a racist, but it also might explain
the role of Trump Inc.—where both older sons now earn their “rice
bowls” (it’s their sister and brother-in-law who are the federal
employees)--which might have accepted hundreds of millions of dollars from
Russian and other murky overseas sources looking to both “invest” but also
launder Illegal and other dirty money.
I’ll let you decide if
the all of the WH/Trump Admin personnel actions and tweets—fights with the FBI
and US intelligence sources--represent any form of “obstruction” or
interference with Mueller’s objectives??
“Collusion”—where most people see the hand of Russia’s
Vladimir Putin and his intelligence/security forces trying to manipulate Trump
and his team, utilize US social media to influence the election, hack into
personal and institutional accounts, and then distribute the contents—is one
item President Trump likes to offer up (paraphrasing), “There
was no collusion. If there is no collusion, there is no reason for the Mueller
investigation.”
That’s wrong Mr.
President as suggested by the three investigatory matters identified.
If any one of the tripod
issues gets supported by the Special Prosecutor’s work—that would cost the
President both support from the American people and maybe, if the grievances
are dire enough, your job.
Let Robert Mueller complete his work
and don’t interfere. If you are innocent, you have nothing to fear and
everything to gain.
I’ll close this week
saying it appears to me the American people are wising up to the Trump
con and the fact he’s a legendary “financial, deal making, genius”
only in his own mind.
The American people
deserve much better and Donald Trump needs to be more faithful to his day job
if he hopes to survive his term in the White House.
We’ll see if President Trump's Tuesday’s State of the Union address offers those hopes or will be more of the
same, “Look at me, I’m great.”
Maloni, 1-28-2018