Congress
They’ve been back in for a week or so--after July 4th break-- and soon they will be out,
again for their summer recess, lasting from August through the beginning of
September. Nice job!!
Scrutinizing the Iran pact will dominate Congress’s time in
the House and Senate and soon we will hear both parties fill the airways with
shouts and claims of “sellout” and “weakling”—and that’s before the growing,
presidential candidates disgorge all of their bile and limited insight.
Just where is Sarah Palin when we need her?
Of course, there will be no time for additional serious congressional
inquiries into the GSEs or related matters, although when David Fiderer’s book
comes out, finally, they might have plenty of questions about Hank Paulson’s
and Tim Geithner’s activities..
Iran
Deal: Have Empty or Half Full?
Time magazine, the Washington Post, and New York Times endorsements,
not withstanding, I can’t shake the feeling that President Obama, John Kerry,
and the US came up short in the Iran deal. That’s mainly because I
don’t trust the Iranians and believe that its leaders will say and do
anything to get the sanctions removed. Displaying a shrewd market bizarre
bartering mentality, they seem to have succeeded. It may take Iran a few years
to produce it, but they will get their bomb (if they don’t already have 9/10 of
it stored underground somewhere).
I
don’t believe that any deal--which doesn’t allow unannounced UN visits to any
and all Iranian sites dealing with the possible creation of nuclear weapon
components or processes--hardly was the “best possible deal” we could get.
So what if that requirement screams, “Iran, we don’t trust you.”
We don’t.
The US never seems to learn that these nations
don’t share our values, democratic institutions, or principles. So, whether it’s Russian adventurism in the
Ukraine, Syrian “red lines,” negotiating with Iran on nuclear matters, or calling
out Chinese hackers, who have stolen sensitive federal security and personal
information, we seldom turn the screws enough and end up getting just
that—screwed.
Of course for this Administration, politically, it
will be on someone else’s watch; just as a resolution of the GSE mess
will be. But from now until the Iran deal blows up or gets congressional
approval, President Obama can spout all of the legacy stuff he wants with only
the “usual suspects” objecting.
And the President thanking the Russians? It reminds of when
I win at the casino. I am ebullient and after tipping the dealer generously,
I’ll share a little of my winnings with generally the four or five other
players at the table.
It’s a gesture and means little, since most are strangers
and they didn’t lose, I just beat the house and won.
Obama’s happy, so he’s throwing around praise, willy nilly,
whether it is deserved or not. The Russians are not our friends.
I would hope the Congress stalls the deal, raises one or
more desirable changes which the Iranians have to swallow. We’ll see how badly
that country wants the economic relief being proffered.
If Iran is not into nuclear weapon making, those treaty changes shouldn’t slow things
down too much.
Trump
Keeps Getting Better and Better
The “Donald” is exceeding even my destructive hopes as he
runs like a wild bull through the GOP’s china shop, breaking political dishes
slashing reputations, shining bright lights on his political skills, and roiling
events. (I won’t mention spats causing his corporate conglomerate business and
revenue.)
The party elders—whomever they are (Reince Priebus. et
al?)—are not going to lose their Republican Party pre-convention to Donald Trump,
even though they may skunk him and lose the 2016 election.
But Trump fast is becoming the best free political show in
town. The “long knives” will come out for him soon, joining the internecine “shivs”
already there.
Josh
Rosner on the 7-18-Larry Kudlow radio show.
(Link to show’s audio is
below.)
Sigh, Rosner’s remarks didn’t “wow”
me, quite the opposite. I thought he missed several opportunities to nail the
bad guys. He could have, but he didn’t or chose to not do so.
Where he was most helpful was
telling Kudlow that this Administration and GOP interests in Washington have
been racing to embrace a new mortgage finance system which would be controlled
by the very large financial institutions, whose aberrant actions hardly deserve
being rewarded in that manner. Plus, they were those responsible for 2008
losses far more than F&F.
That reality, I believe, is the
single greatest vulnerability for possible F&F replacements. The TBTF guys
will own it and , because—without a major F&F like structural substitute
inside the process—the 15 and 30 year fixed rate loans are history or will be
priced beyond the ability of most people to afford.
Rooting
for Judge Margaret Sweeney and whomever is hearing the Lambeth appeal!
Here
is a comment, found on the Tim Howard 717’s blog, in which poster “JMurrayx” lauds Judge
Margaret Sweeney’s recent actions and said why. (OK, I applaud the move, but I’m still waiting for her first
substantive plaintiffs’ call.)
The mere fact that Judge Sweeney has granted the legal
teams in the other lawsuits access to Fairholme’s protected information and
depositions, albeit under seal, means that she sees enough damning merit in the
information to justify spreading the wildfire to the other lawsuits, a clear
indication that the game is finally over for the Gov’t.
No self-respecting judge would let this happen if she
didn’t see the writing on the wall (I am really holding back when I say this).
It kind of like knowingly letting the Trojan Horse enter
the city of Troy!
What
Others Are Saying
Trey Garrison
questions sweep.
_________________________________________________________
|
Borowitz
in the New Yorker—Palin
___________________________________________________________
Thanks
to old pals Wayne and Mary Sommerfeld for 55 years of friendship, education,
and more, including this contemporary
Abbott and Costello adaptation, explaining today’s “unemployment.”
COSTELLO : I want to talk
about the unemployment rate in America .
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 5.6%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.
COSTELLO: You just said 5.6%.
ABBOTT: 5.6% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 5.6% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 5.6%.
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 5.6% or 23%?
ABBOTT: 5.6% are unemployed. 23% are out of work.
COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, Congress said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
COSTELLO: To whom?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 5.6%. Otherwise it would be 23%.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 5.6%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.
COSTELLO: You just said 5.6%.
ABBOTT: 5.6% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 5.6% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 5.6%.
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 5.6% or 23%?
ABBOTT: 5.6% are unemployed. 23% are out of work.
COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, Congress said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
COSTELLO: To whom?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 5.6%. Otherwise it would be 23%.
COSTELLO : Wait, I got a
question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment
number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct.
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an Economist.
COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a Politician.
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct.
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an Economist.
COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a Politician.
____________________________________________________________
Former Fed “Macher” Explains Greek Bailout
My old
Fed colleague, Ed Ettin, explained to me how the new Greek bailout will work.
Think, carefully, when reading this folks.
It is a slow day in a little Greek
Village. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times
are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.
On this particular day a rich
German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local hotel and
lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the
rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.
The owner gives him some keys and,
as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note
and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the €100 note
and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the €100 note
and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.
The guy at the Farmers' Co-op
takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drink bill at the taverna.
The pub owner slips the money
along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing
hard times and has been providing him with "services" on
credit.
The hooker then rushes to the
hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note.
The hotel proprietor then places
the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect
anything.
At that moment the traveler comes
down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not
satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.
No one produced anything……..no one earned anything.
However, the whole village is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, my friends, is how the bailout package works.
_________________________________________________________
|
Maloni, 7-27-2015
7 comments:
Seems like Kerry or obama are doing their best to imitate and flatter the memory of Nevil Chamberlain. I'd rather them stuff a scud up their back sides.
Things are going to get very interesting leading up to the elections.
I will not strongly disagree with the suggestion of weakness, maybe not "Chamberlainesque" but still too willing for the deal.
We'll see the public's reception before 2016, as the Congress has to deal with this baby in the next 60 days.
Despite the institutional hurdle in both houses, I think you will see a demand in both parties for changes, which I would welcome.
Bill, thanks again for your weekly efforts! Any ETA for the "Hammer" e-book drop?
Thanks for asking, GB--
At the very end, when I thought he was publishing, the "artist" in him decided he needed to do a heavy edit, rewrite, although not deviating from his core thesis that Paulson and Geithner--intentionally or otherwise--carried out the same plan.
Talent takes time.
So, other than I know it concerns him to have it waiting, I can't give you a better estimate. I have stopped asking him about schedules and am just trying to be as supportive as I can. (I do know, he also has major older family issues, which he manages.)
In the meantime, I also asked Frank Raines to flesh out his "mutual insurance company" idea that made it into Bethany McLean's NYT op ed.
Thanks Bill. Hopefully David's e-book can be molded into a sledgehammer. I hope things for his family improve/work out.
I'll be interested to hear Mr. Raines' comments when he replies, if you care to share that is.
Thanks again.
I urged him to shape a plan and make it public.
Useless, just showing up in my blog as a "Raines says.....!"
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