GSE wishes and curses.."That's the way, $, I like it ; that's the way, $, I like it .."

Prez says a little; Lamberth says less, 
I hope Fifth Circuit says/does more

When he addressed the National Association of Realtors last week, I don’t know if the budget-conscious NAR didn’t offer President Trump a teleprompter or the POTUS said he didn’t need one?

It’s a shame because the prompter’s presence tends to produce more serious and better developed presidential commentary. Without one—it suggests sometimes he’s winging it—and what we got was some airy-fairy nice housing GSE-budget comments but without much/any substance or timetable.

However, I’ll happily take it (before “Anon1” reminds me Obama never went that far) and nod approvingly.

I’ll continue to assume there’s a busy team behind President Trump working on what I think—at this point--is a tractable issue. (They’ve certainly given enough signs to think that is the case).

President Trump did say the Admin has “many geniuses working on the problem” and he/they will bring in the best minds from Wall Street to help.

But, they’ll be minus Wall Street vet Craig Phillips contributions. (He can’t be happy staying on in town who knows how long, no matter what words were put into his mouth.)

Philips announced his “whenever” departure, last week, that also made me recall Charlie Gasparino’s suggestion several weeks ago that there was some major internal GSE clashes within the White House working group, which likely would have covered Mnuchin, Phillips, Otting, Calabria, Kudlow and, Trump insisted, HUD Secretary Ben Carson

But rumor has it that Carson, the noted former brain surgeon, has some other issues on his mind. Reportedly, he’s still busy looking for an office dinette set, which meets Mrs. Ben Carson’s standards.

Apparently, the seldom-seen-heard Carson also is very agitated, after the 7-11 public relations department asked to come in and take a “milk carton” photo of the Secretary, “for contingency purposes,” they claimed.

The Secretary now is feverishly checking his family tree to make sure he isn’t related to Judge Margaret Sweeney!

Until I see something to the contrary, I will assume Gasparino’s prediction had something to do with Philips getting elbowed out. If I had a choice, the next one I’d want “out” is Kudlow. 

Judge Royce Lamberth, next to NADA 

Shame on me!

I was hopeful--when I misread the news report on Judge Lamberth’s May 16, 2019 ruling--and then my hopes largely were dashed,.

The infamous jurist—who issued the original decision, much cloned by subsequent cowardly colleagues, suggesting the government can do whatever it wanted to Fannie and Freddie--leaped into the GSE limelight, a little bit, last week.

Unlike other smarter observers, Maloni (this “AAFL*”) wanted to believe that Judge Lamberth’s new rejection of defendants (FHFA, Fannie and Freddie, i.e. the GSE lawsuit “bad guys”) request to reconsider part of his ruling re plaintiffs rights to challenge the sweep, was something special for the GSEs. But, I was mostly wrong.

One lawyer friend did say it allowed preferred investors to possible secure contractual damages, but not a lot more, since it requires some Judge/court to say those investors were damaged, which hasn’t occurred, yet. (See Lamberth ruling link below.)

(https://gselinks.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/13-mc-01288-0104.pdf)

His 5-16 decision put Lamberth albeit mildly and briefly on the plaintiff’s side.

But more noteworthy, if you believe/hope/fantasize that Judges talk to one another across jurisdictions and circuits, the grand optimist in me says—for a judge who might want to clean up his legacy after being lied to by the government and issuing a ruling he might want to forget—Lamberth’s opinion is a teasingly perfect gesture setting up a Fifth Circuit Court decision rejecting the 2012 Treasury “sweep!”

Just so I don’t curse any GSE positives, I am going to do a heavy Dionne Warwick on this one, i.e. “Wishin', hopin', thinkin', and prayin', plannin', and dreamin’.”

(*ain’t a *&^%$#@ lawyer.) 

Washington Post does it, again

The element in me which chortles when I catch the Washington Post, an avowed anti-GSE editorial opponent, with its lacy hypocrisy showing, loves these events (which might occur, again, next Saturday, after Monday, May 20^th significant GSE stock prices increases)!

Last Saturday’s Post (May 18), as it does every Saturday in its business page stock listings, carried its regular “Local Gainers and Losers” list.

Prominent under “Gainers” were Fannie Mae, with a 4.9% weekly improvement, and Freddie Mac with its 4.7% gain.

How do you like them apples,”Posties?”

Tough—but not impossible for you—to contend the GSE citizen investors, along with Uncle Sam’s 79.9% ownership, don’t matter when you celebrate that performance along with other successful corporations. 

Am I being a “Cassandra?”

Do GSE eyes bigger than our stomachs=“Danger Will Robinson?”

When I was a kid, announcing my great hunger, asking for more food than I could possibly eat, and then failing to consume it, my mother—or one of her doting seven sisters—would say, “See, your eyes were bigger than your stomach.” 

My youthful piggy requests and leave behinds may not be a perfect analogy, but I am bothered by a lot of the website talk about GSEs common shares yielding ten or more times their current prices (@$2.70)—I’ve even seen $100 common estimates--based on nothing more solid than investors’ wild appetites and yield dreams.

Given the GSE stock return multi-year drought, it’s perfectly understandable when things appear to be going right.

But it may unrealistic and, frankly, because of all of the tricks still available to the “bad guys,” the results and returns may not happen just the way we want them!

Although I root for the Trump Admin (Treasury and FHFA) and for the Fifth Circuit to fix the mess, until it does, don’t borrow against your “winnings” or use Grandma’s butter and egg savings to leap into greater investments

It may be premature, but some of us are going to commit that error.

As GSE investors and veterans we should realize there are no sure things…until there are.

I know I sound like my cautious mother and her sisters, who were always quick to remind they “had to survive during the Depression” and remembered lean times and bad things happening.

There’s a reason growing up we were advised to be safe, not sorry; not to count our chickens before they were hatched; don’t buy that expensive dress or suit until someone asks you to the dance or offers you that job; don’t make plans that depend on something good happening before it actually happens, etc. etc.

Good financial luck to all, just don’t run before you walk!

(Yes, I saw and benefited from Monday’s market results--clearly stoked by Mark Calabria's bold statements--yet still urging caution/restraint. Note, the rest of my investments lost me more money yesterday than my GSE positions produced, so what do I know?)

Maloni, 5-21-2019

(Headed to the west coast and family stuff for a week, probably won't write for a while, unless the dramatic happens, i.e. Maloni wins Pulitzer, Nobel Peace Prize, or hits big at the casino.)